Automated lesion segmentation and quantification for prediction of paradoxical worsening in patients with tubercular serpiginous-like choroiditis.

To develop and evaluate a fully automated pipeline that analyzes color fundus images in patients with tubercular serpiginous-like choroiditis (TB SLC) for prediction of paradoxical worsening (PW). In this retrospective study, patients with TB SLC with a follow-up of 9 months after initiation of anti-tubercular therapy were included. A fully automated custom-designed pipeline was developed which was initially tested using 12 baseline color fundus photographs for assessment of repeatability. After confirming reliability using Bland-Altman plots and intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC), the pipeline was deployed for all patients. The images were preprocessed to exclude the optic nerve from the fundus photo using a single-shot trainable WEKA segmentation algorithm. Two automatic thresholding algorithms were applied, and quantitative metrics were generated. These metrics were compared between PW + and PW- groups using non-parametric tests. A logistic regression model was used to predict probability of PW for assessing binary classification performance and receiver operator curves were generated to choose a sensitivity-optimized threshold. The study included 139 patients (139 eyes; 92 males and 47 females; mean age: 44.8 ± 11.3 years) with TB SLC. Pilot analysis of 12 images showed an excellent ICC for measuring the mean area, intensity, and integrated pixel intensity (all ICC > 0.89). The PW + group had significantly higher mean lesion area (p = 0.0152), mean pixel intensity (p = 0.0181), and integrated pixel intensity (p < 0.0001) compared to the PW- group. Using a sensitivity optimized threshold cut-off for mean pixel intensity, an area under the curve of 0.87 was achieved (sensitivity: 96.80% and specificity: 72.09%). Automated calculation of lesion metrics such as mean pixel intensity and segmented area in TB SLC is a novel approach with good repeatability in predicting PW during the follow-up.