National Research Institute of Tuberculosis and Lung Diseases, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
Student's Research Committee, School of Medicine, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
BMC Res Notes. 2022 Apr 5;15(1):130. doi: 10.1186/s13104-022-06018-y.
The actual impact of the pandemic on COVID-19 specific mortality is still unclear due to the variability in access to diagnostic tools. This study aimed to estimate the excess all-cause mortality in Iran until September 2021 based on the national death statistics.
The autoregressive integrated moving average was used to predict seasonal all-cause death in Iran (R-squared = 0.45). We observed a 38.8% (95% confidence interval (CI) 29.7%-40.1%) rise in the all-cause mortality from 22 June 2020 to 21 June 2021. The excess all-cause mortality per 100,000 population were 178.86 (95% CI 137.2-220.5, M:F ratio = 1.3) with 49.1% of these excess deaths due to COVID-19. Comparison of spring 2019 and spring 2021 revealed that the highest percent increase in mortality was among men aged 65-69 years old (77%) and women aged 60-64 years old (86.8%). Moreover, the excess mortality among 31 provinces of Iran ranged from 109.7 (Hormozgan) to 273.2 (East-Azerbaijan) per 100,000 population. In conclusion, there was a significant rise in all-cause mortality during the pandemic. Since COVID-19 fatality explains about half of this rise, the increase in other causes of death and underestimation in reported data should be concerned by further studies.
由于诊断工具获取的差异，大流行对 COVID-19 特异性死亡率的实际影响仍不清楚。本研究旨在根据国家死亡统计数据，估计截至 2021 年 9 月伊朗的全因超额死亡率。
使用自回归综合移动平均法来预测伊朗全因季节性死亡（R 平方= 0.45）。我们观察到，自 2020 年 6 月 22 日至 2021 年 6 月 21 日，全因死亡率上升了 38.8%（95%置信区间（CI）29.7%-40.1%）。每 10 万人的全因超额死亡率为 178.86（95%CI 137.2-220.5，男女比例为 1.3），其中 49.1%的超额死亡归因于 COVID-19。将 2019 年春季和 2021 年春季进行比较，结果表明，死亡率增加最高的是年龄在 65-69 岁的男性（77%）和年龄在 60-64 岁的女性（86.8%）。此外，伊朗 31 个省份的超额死亡率范围为每 10 万人 109.7（霍尔木兹甘）至 273.2（东阿塞拜疆）。总之，大流行期间全因死亡率显著上升。由于 COVID-19 死亡率解释了这一上升的一半左右，因此其他死因的增加和报告数据的低估应该引起进一步研究的关注。
