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秘鲁按性别和年龄分层的全因超额死亡人数:COVID-19 大流行期间的时间序列分析。

Excess all-cause deaths stratified by sex and age in Peru: a time series analysis during the COVID-19 pandemic.

机构信息

Centro de Investigación en Salud Publica, Facultad de Medicina Humana, Universidad San Martin de Porres, Lima, Peru

Facultad de Ciencias de la Salud, Universidad Tecnológica del Peru, Lima, Peru.

出版信息

BMJ Open. 2022 Mar 10;12(3):e057056. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2021-057056.


DOI:10.1136/bmjopen-2021-057056
PMID:35273060
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8914408/
Abstract

BACKGROUND: In this study, we estimated excess all-cause deaths and excess death rates during the COVID-19 pandemic in 25 Peruvian regions, stratified by sex and age group. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study. SETTING: Twenty-five Peruvian regions with complete mortality data. PARTICIPANTS: Annual all-cause official mortality data set from SINADEF (Sistema Informático Nacional de Defunciones) at the Ministry of Health of Peru for 2017-2020, disaggregated by age and sex. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Excess deaths and excess death rates (observed deaths vs expected deaths) in 2020 by sex and age (0-29, 30-39, 40-49, 50-59, 60-69, 70-79 and ≥80 years) were estimated using P-score. The ORs for excess mortality were summarised with a random-effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: In the period between January and December 2020, we estimated an excess of 68 608 (117%) deaths in men and 34 742 (69%) deaths in women, corresponding to an excess death rate of 424 per 100 000 men and 211 per 100 000 women compared with the expected mortality rate. The number of excess deaths increased with age and was higher in men aged 60-69 years (217%) compared with women (121%). Men between the ages of 40 and 79 years experienced twice the rate of excess deaths compared with the expected rate. In eight regions, excess deaths were higher than 100% in men, and in seven regions excess deaths were higher than 70% in women. Men in eight regions and women in one region had two times increased odds of excess death than the expected mortality. There were differences in excess mortality according to temporal distribution by epidemiological week. CONCLUSION: Approximately 100 000 excess all-cause deaths occurred in 2020 in Peru. Age-stratified excess death rates were higher in men than in women. There was strong excess in geographical and temporal mortality patterns according to region.

摘要

背景:在这项研究中,我们估计了 2020 年在秘鲁的 25 个地区中,因 COVID-19 大流行导致的全因死亡人数和死亡率的超额值,并按性别和年龄组进行了分层。

设计:横断面研究。

地点:秘鲁卫生部的 SINADEF(国家死亡信息系统)中拥有完整死亡率数据的 25 个秘鲁地区。

参与者:2017-2020 年期间,按年龄和性别细分的来自 SINADEF 的年度全因官方死亡数据,来自秘鲁卫生部的国家死亡信息系统。

主要观察指标:使用 P 分数估计 2020 年因性别和年龄(0-29、30-39、40-49、50-59、60-69、70-79 和 ≥80 岁)的超额死亡人数和超额死亡率(观察死亡人数与预期死亡人数)。使用随机效应荟萃分析对超额死亡率的比值比进行了总结。

结果:在 2020 年 1 月至 12 月期间,我们估计男性死亡人数超过 68608 人(117%),女性死亡人数超过 34742 人(69%),这相当于男性每 100000 人中有 424 人超额死亡,女性每 100000 人中有 211 人超额死亡。与预期死亡率相比,超额死亡人数随年龄增加而增加,60-69 岁男性(217%)的超额死亡人数高于女性(121%)。40-79 岁男性的超额死亡人数是预期死亡率的两倍。在八个地区,男性的超额死亡人数超过 100%,在七个地区,女性的超额死亡人数超过 70%。八个地区的男性和一个地区的女性的超额死亡几率是预期死亡率的两倍。根据流行病学周的时间分布,超额死亡率存在差异。

结论:2020 年秘鲁约有 10 万人因各种原因死亡。按年龄分层的超额死亡率男性高于女性。根据地区的不同,存在明显的地理和时间死亡率模式的超额情况。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/1971/8914408/d05072f56d74/bmjopen-2021-057056f07.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/1971/8914408/29dd5214d9b7/bmjopen-2021-057056f01.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/1971/8914408/e97d971e122b/bmjopen-2021-057056f02.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/1971/8914408/dd9e00435b6f/bmjopen-2021-057056f03.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/1971/8914408/d896600d127b/bmjopen-2021-057056f04.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/1971/8914408/1377d429a50a/bmjopen-2021-057056f05.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/1971/8914408/a71dda6ec22a/bmjopen-2021-057056f06.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/1971/8914408/d05072f56d74/bmjopen-2021-057056f07.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/1971/8914408/29dd5214d9b7/bmjopen-2021-057056f01.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/1971/8914408/e97d971e122b/bmjopen-2021-057056f02.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/1971/8914408/dd9e00435b6f/bmjopen-2021-057056f03.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/1971/8914408/d896600d127b/bmjopen-2021-057056f04.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/1971/8914408/1377d429a50a/bmjopen-2021-057056f05.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/1971/8914408/a71dda6ec22a/bmjopen-2021-057056f06.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/1971/8914408/d05072f56d74/bmjopen-2021-057056f07.jpg

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本文引用的文献

[1]
Association between Obesity and COVID-19 Mortality in Peru: An Ecological Study.

Trop Med Infect Dis. 2021-10-7

[2]
Estimation of all-cause excess mortality by age-specific mortality patterns for countries with incomplete vital statistics: a population-based study of the case of Peru during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Lancet Reg Health Am. 2021-10

[3]
Tracking excess mortality across countries during the COVID-19 pandemic with the World Mortality Dataset.

Elife. 2021-6-30

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A first analysis of excess mortality in Switzerland in 2020.

PLoS One. 2021

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Sex differences in the incidence, mortality, and fatality of COVID-19 in Peru.

PLoS One. 2021-6-14

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Salud Publica Mex. 2021-2-26

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Excess deaths associated with covid-19 pandemic in 2020: age and sex disaggregated time series analysis in 29 high income countries.

BMJ. 2021-5-19

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SARS-CoV-2 prevalence associated to low socioeconomic status and overcrowding in an LMIC megacity: A population-based seroepidemiological survey in Lima, Peru.

EClinicalMedicine. 2021-4

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BMJ. 2021-2-24

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