Department of College of Transportation Engineering, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian, China.
PLoS One. 2022 Apr 6;17(4):e0265216. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0265216. eCollection 2022.
A structural vector autoregressive model and spillover index analysis based on generalized prediction error variance decomposition were used to explore the impact of public health emergencies on the dry bulk shipping market and provide suggestions for addressing the impact of public health emergencies. Moreover, the risk fluctuation and spillover of the dry bulk shipping market during public health emergencies were analyzed to understand the ways in which public health emergencies impact the dry bulk shipping market and to quantify the impact intensity. In related studies, the influence of the international crude oil price index and dry bulk ship port berthing volume were also considered. The results show that considering the immediate impact, the increase of newly confirmed cases of COVID-19 has a significant impact on the dry bulk shipping market, which lasts for more than 3 weeks and is always a negative shock. Different types of public health emergencies have different effects on the dry bulk shipping segmented shipping market. Dry bulk shipping companies should fully understand the development of public health emergencies, make full use of risk aversion forecasting tools in financial markets and make deployments for different situations.
采用结构向量自回归模型和基于广义预测误差方差分解的溢出指数分析方法，探讨了公共卫生突发事件对干散货航运市场的影响，并提出了应对公共卫生突发事件影响的建议。此外，分析了公共卫生突发事件期间干散货航运市场的风险波动和溢出，以了解公共卫生突发事件对干散货航运市场的影响方式，并量化影响强度。在相关研究中，还考虑了国际原油价格指数和干散货船港口停泊量的影响。结果表明，从直接影响来看，COVID-19 新增确诊病例的增加对干散货航运市场有显著影响，这种影响持续了 3 周以上，且始终是负面冲击。不同类型的公共卫生突发事件对干散货航运细分航运市场的影响不同。干散货航运公司应充分了解公共卫生突发事件的发展，充分利用金融市场的避险预测工具，并针对不同情况进行部署。
