Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou, China.
National Tibetan Plateau Data Center, State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Environment and Resources (TPESER), Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
Nat Commun. 2022 Apr 6;13(1):1865. doi: 10.1038/s41467-022-29523-x.
Enhanced warming in the Arctic (Arctic amplification, AA) in the last decades has been linked to several factors including sea ice and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). However, how these factors contributed to AA variations in a long-term perspective remains unclear. By reconstructing a millennial AA index combining climate model simulations with recently available proxy data, this work determines the important influences of the AMO and anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing on AA variations in the last millennium, leading to identification of a significant downward trend of AA on top of a sustained strong AMO modulation at the multidecadal scales. The decreased AA during the industrial era was strongly associated with the anthropogenic forcing, proving the emerging role of the forcing in reducing the AA strength.
在过去几十年中，北极的变暖加剧（北极放大，AA）与包括海冰和大西洋多年代际振荡（AMO）在内的多个因素有关。然而，这些因素在长期视角下对 AA 变化的贡献仍不清楚。通过将气候模型模拟与最近可用的代理数据相结合来重建千年 AA 指数，本工作确定了 AMO 和人为温室气体强迫对过去千年 AA 变化的重要影响，导致在多十年尺度上识别出 AA 的显著下降趋势以及持续的强 AMO 调制。工业时代的 AA 减少与人为强迫密切相关，证明了强迫在降低 AA 强度方面的新兴作用。
