Spatiotemporal analysis of water-related ecosystem services under ecological restoration scenarios: A case study in northern Shaanxi, China.

In order to control severe soil erosion, large-scale ecological restoration programs (ERPs) were undertaken, which greatly increased vegetation cover in the Chinese Loess Plateau. Although this has generated positive impacts on soil erosion reduction, the conflicts between water supply and the ERPs in the Loess Plateau remain debatable. The impacts of ERPs and climate change on soil erosion and water supply in the future received little attention. Therefore, the objective of this study is to analyze the potential impacts of ERPs on soil erosion and water yield by 2050 in northern Shaanxi, the Chinese Loess Plateau. Soil erosion and water yield were modelled for 2050 based on land use and land cover (LULC) retrospective datasets and downscaled climate scenarios. We designed three 2050 conservation scenarios (protection, business as usual (BAU), and No LULC change) and compared them to the 2015 baseline. The results indicate that soil erosion under the protection and BAU scenarios showed similar decreasing trends compared with the 2015 baseline. The water yield decreased for all three scenarios: by 28% (No LULC change scenario), 29% (BAU scenario), and 37% (protection scenario), indicating that climate change and ecological restoration are likely to place substantial pressures on water by 2050. Considering the water scarcity and climate scenarios in this region, stabilization of the vegetation cover at the 2015 levels may best support soil and water conservation in the future in northern Shaanxi. This study is expected to provide insights for decision-making to develop optimal soil and water conservation strategies in the semi-arid environment in China.