Guo Shanwen, Wang Qibin, Hordofa Tolassa Temesgen, Kaur Prabjot, Nguyen Ngoc Quynh, Maneengam Apichit
Institute of Political Economy, Taiwan ChengKung University, Tainan, Taiwan.
School of Economics and Finance, Xi'an Jiaotong University, China.
Resour Policy. 2022 Aug;77:102721. doi: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2022.102721. Epub 2022 Apr 13.
COVID-19 pandemic caused havoc around the globe in both economic and non-economic sectors. This paper, unlike previous studies, evaluates the role of COVID-19 on the volatility in natural resources. The volatility of natural resources commodity prices has been the center of discussion, especially during the pandemic. Unlike previous studies, this study aims to evaluate the role of the pandemic, i.e., Covid-19 and its possible impact on volatility in natural resources commodity prices for China. China has been the center of this epidemic disease and is considered one of the major economies affected by the Covid-19; therefore, it is better to conduct this study for China. This study uses data from January 2020 till September 2021 to capture the peak time of Covid-19. Moreover, this study employs the novel wavelet power spectrum and wavelet coherence approach to better capture volatility within commodity prices volatility and Covid-19 and evaluate the association between both variables. The empirical results reveal that only natural resources commodity prices are volatile and only short. While Covid-19 positive cases and Covid-19 deaths are not vulnerable during the study period. Moreover, the wavelet coherence conforms that both Covid-19 positive cases and Covid-19 deaths significantly cause volatility in natural resources commodity prices. Although, volatility is found at different periods; still, volatility is observed only in the short-run. The study also provides relevant policy implications to ensure a relevant and timely solution for the existing issue. Moreover, future research guidelines and the study's limitations are also provided.
新冠疫情在全球范围内对经济和非经济部门都造成了严重破坏。与以往的研究不同，本文评估了新冠疫情对自然资源波动的影响。自然资源商品价格的波动一直是讨论的焦点，尤其是在疫情期间。与以往的研究不同，本研究旨在评估疫情（即新冠疫情）及其对中国自然资源商品价格波动的可能影响。中国一直是这种流行病的中心，被认为是受新冠疫情影响的主要经济体之一；因此，对中国进行这项研究是比较合适的。本研究使用了2020年1月至2021年9月的数据来捕捉新冠疫情的高峰期。此外，本研究采用了新颖的小波功率谱和小波相干方法，以更好地捕捉商品价格波动和新冠疫情之间的波动性，并评估两个变量之间的关联。实证结果表明，只有自然资源商品价格是波动的，而且只是短期波动。而在研究期间，新冠确诊病例和新冠死亡病例并不具有波动性。此外，小波相干分析表明，新冠确诊病例和新冠死亡病例均显著导致自然资源商品价格的波动。虽然在不同时期发现了波动性，但仍然只在短期内观察到了波动性。该研究还提供了相关的政策建议，以确保为现有问题提供相关且及时的解决方案。此外，还提供了未来的研究指导方针以及该研究的局限性。
