Shaffer Blake, Quintero Daniel, Rhodes Joshua
Department of Economics, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB T2N 1N4, Canada.
Department of Mechanical Engineering, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712, USA.
iScience. 2022 Mar 29;25(4):104173. doi: 10.1016/j.isci.2022.104173. eCollection 2022 Apr 15.
We estimate the effect of heightened temperature sensitivity on electricity demand in Texas during the February 2021 blackout event. Using 20 years of hourly data, we estimate the relationship between temperature and electricity demand; finding demand has become more responsive to cold temperatures over time. This is consistent with the fact electric heating has similarly increased over the past 20 years in Texas. We find during the February 2021 event, average electricity demand was 8% higher, and approximately 10,000 MW higher during the peak hour, than it would have been had temperature sensitivity remained unchanged at early 2000s levels. Our results highlight that Texas's increased sensitivity to cold weather extremes is not limited to the supply side, but the demand side as well. These findings have implications to other regions that are seeking to reduce carbon emissions through the electrification of heating.
我们估计了2021年2月停电事件期间，温度敏感性增强对德克萨斯州电力需求的影响。利用20年的每小时数据，我们估计了温度与电力需求之间的关系；发现随着时间的推移，需求对寒冷温度的反应变得更加敏感。这与过去20年德克萨斯州电暖同样增加的事实是一致的。我们发现，在2021年2月的事件中，平均电力需求比温度敏感性保持在21世纪初水平不变时高出8%，在高峰时段高出约10000兆瓦。我们的结果表明，德克萨斯州对极端寒冷天气敏感性的增加不仅限于供应侧，需求侧也是如此。这些发现对其他试图通过供暖电气化来减少碳排放的地区具有启示意义。
