Roberts Michael J, Zhang Sisi, Yuan Eleanor, Jones James, Fripp Matthias
Department of Economics, University of Hawai'i at Mānoa, 2424 Maile Way, Saunders 542, Honolulu, HI 96822, USA.
University of Hawai'i Economic Research Organization (UHERO), Honolulu, HI 96822, USA.
iScience. 2022 Aug 17;25(9):104940. doi: 10.1016/j.isci.2022.104940. eCollection 2022 Sep 16.
The growth of intermittent renewable energy and climate change makes it increasingly difficult to manage electricity demand variability. Centralized storage can help but is costly. An alternative is to shift demand. Cooling and heating demands are substantial and can be economically shifted using thermal storage. To estimate what thermal storage, employed at a scale, might due to reshape electricity loads, we pair fine-scale weather data with hourly electricity use to estimate the share of temperature-sensitive demand across 31 regions that span the continental United States. We then show how much variability can be reduced by shifting temperature-sensitive loads, with and without improved transmission between regions. We find that approximately three-quarters of within-day, within-region demand variability can be eliminated by shifting just half of temperature-sensitive demand. The variability-reducing benefits of shifting temperature-sensitive demand complement those gained from the improved interregional transmission, and greatly mitigate the challenge of serving higher peaks under climate change.
间歇性可再生能源的增长和气候变化使得管理电力需求的波动性变得越来越困难。集中式储能虽有帮助，但成本高昂。一种替代方案是转移需求。制冷和制热需求很大，并且可以通过蓄热经济地转移。为了估计大规模使用蓄热可能对重塑电力负荷产生的影响，我们将精细尺度的天气数据与每小时的用电量相结合，以估算美国大陆31个地区对温度敏感的需求份额。然后，我们展示了在有无改善地区间输电的情况下，通过转移对温度敏感的负荷可以减少多少波动性。我们发现，仅转移一半对温度敏感的需求，就可以消除大约四分之三的日内、区域内需求波动性。转移对温度敏感的需求所带来的减少波动性的好处与改善区域间输电所带来的好处相辅相成，并大大缓解了在气候变化下应对更高峰值的挑战。
