Auffhammer Maximilian, Baylis Patrick, Hausman Catherine H
Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720;
National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA 02138.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2017 Feb 21;114(8):1886-1891. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1613193114. Epub 2017 Feb 6.
It has been suggested that climate change impacts on the electric sector will account for the majority of global economic damages by the end of the current century and beyond [Rose S, et al. (2014) ]. The empirical literature has shown significant increases in climate-driven impacts on overall consumption, yet has not focused on the cost implications of the increased intensity and frequency of extreme events driving peak demand, which is the highest load observed in a period. We use comprehensive, high-frequency data at the level of load balancing authorities to parameterize the relationship between average or peak electricity demand and temperature for a major economy. Using statistical models, we analyze multiyear data from 166 load balancing authorities in the United States. We couple the estimated temperature response functions for total daily consumption and daily peak load with 18 downscaled global climate models (GCMs) to simulate climate change-driven impacts on both outcomes. We show moderate and heterogeneous changes in consumption, with an average increase of 2.8% by end of century. The results of our peak load simulations, however, suggest significant increases in the intensity and frequency of peak events throughout the United States, assuming today's technology and electricity market fundamentals. As the electricity grid is built to endure maximum load, our findings have significant implications for the construction of costly peak generating capacity, suggesting additional peak capacity costs of up to 180 billion dollars by the end of the century under business-as-usual.
有人认为，到本世纪末及以后，气候变化对电力部门的影响将占全球经济损失的大部分[罗斯·S等人（2014年）]。实证文献表明，气候驱动对总体消费的影响显著增加，但尚未关注极端事件强度和频率增加对推动峰值需求（即一个时期内观测到的最高负荷）的成本影响。我们使用负荷平衡机构层面的综合高频数据，对一个主要经济体的平均或峰值电力需求与温度之间的关系进行参数化。利用统计模型，我们分析了美国166个负荷平衡机构的多年数据。我们将估计的每日总消费量和每日峰值负荷的温度响应函数与18个降尺度全球气候模型（GCM）相结合，以模拟气候变化对这两个结果的驱动影响。我们显示消费量有适度且异质的变化，到本世纪末平均增加2.8%。然而，我们的峰值负荷模拟结果表明，假设采用当今的技术和电力市场基本面，美国各地峰值事件的强度和频率将显著增加。由于电网是为承受最大负荷而建设的，我们的研究结果对建设成本高昂的峰值发电能力具有重大影响，表明在照常营业的情况下，到本世纪末额外的峰值容量成本高达1800亿美元。
