Grado Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, VA, United States of America.
Department of Information Systems, Statistics, and Management Science, Culverhouse College of Business, The University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, AL, United States of America.
PLoS One. 2022 Apr 21;17(4):e0267388. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0267388. eCollection 2022.
Screening and vaccination are essential in the fight against infectious diseases, but need to be integrated and customized based on community and disease characteristics.
To develop effective screening and vaccination strategies, customized for a college campus, to reduce COVID-19 infections, hospitalizations, deaths, and peak hospitalizations.
DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: We construct a compartmental model of disease spread under vaccination and routine screening, and study the efficacy of four mitigation strategies (routine screening only, vaccination only, vaccination with partial or full routine screening), and a no-intervention strategy. The study setting is a hypothetical college campus of 5,000 students and 455 faculty members during the Fall 2021 academic semester, when the Delta variant was the predominant strain. For sensitivity analysis, we vary the screening frequency, daily vaccination rate, initial vaccine coverage, and screening and vaccination compliance; and consider scenarios that represent low/medium/high transmission and test efficacy. Model parameters come from publicly available or published sources.
With low initial vaccine coverage (30% in our study), even aggressive vaccination and screening result in a high number of infections: 1,020 to 2,040 (1,530 to 2,480) with routine daily (every other day) screening of the unvaccinated; 280 to 900 with daily screening extended to the newly vaccinated in base- and worst-case scenarios, which respectively consider reproduction numbers of 4.75 and 6.75 for the Delta variant.
Integrated vaccination and routine screening can allow for a safe opening of a college when both the vaccine effectiveness and the initial vaccine coverage are sufficiently high. The interventions need to be customized considering the initial vaccine coverage, estimated compliance, screening and vaccination capacity, disease transmission and adverse outcome rates, and the number of infections/peak hospitalizations the college is willing to tolerate.
在与传染病的斗争中，筛查和接种至关重要，但需要根据社区和疾病特点进行整合和定制。
为大学校园制定有效的筛查和接种策略，以减少 COVID-19 感染、住院、死亡和住院高峰。
设计、设置和参与者：我们构建了一个在接种和常规筛查下疾病传播的房室模型，并研究了四种缓解策略（仅常规筛查、仅接种疫苗、部分或全部常规筛查与接种疫苗相结合，以及不干预策略）的效果。研究设置是在 2021 年秋季学术学期的一个假设的 5000 名学生和 455 名教职员工的大学校园，当时 Delta 变体是主要菌株。为了进行敏感性分析，我们改变了筛查频率、每日接种率、初始疫苗覆盖率以及筛查和接种的合规性；并考虑了代表低/中/高传播的情况和测试效果。模型参数来自公开或已发表的来源。
在初始疫苗覆盖率较低（本研究中为 30%）的情况下，即使采取积极的接种和筛查措施，仍会导致大量感染：在基础和最坏情况下，每天（每隔一天）对未接种疫苗者进行常规筛查，会导致 1020 至 2040 例（1530 至 2480 例）感染；每天筛查范围扩大到新接种疫苗者，分别考虑 Delta 变体的繁殖数为 4.75 和 6.75，会导致 280 至 900 例感染。
当疫苗有效性和初始疫苗覆盖率足够高时，综合接种和常规筛查可以安全地开放大学校园。干预措施需要根据初始疫苗覆盖率、估计的合规性、筛查和接种能力、疾病传播和不良结果率以及大学愿意容忍的感染人数/高峰住院人数进行定制。
