Uncertainty Quantification in Simulations of Myocardial Ischemia.

Computational models of myocardial ischemia are parameterized using assumptions of tissue properties and physiological values such as conductivity ratios in cardiac tissue and conductivity changes between healthy and ischemic tissues. Understanding the effect of uncertainty in these parameter selections would provide useful insight into the performance and variability of the modeling outputs. Recently developed uncertainty quantification tools allow for the application of polynomial chaos expansion uncertainty quantification to such bioelectric models in order to parsimoniously examine model response to input uncertainty. We applied uncertainty quantification to examine reconstructed extracellular potentials from the cardiac passive bidomain based on variation in the conductivity values for the ischemic tissue. We investigated the model response in both a synthetic dataset with simulated ischemic regions and a dataset with ischemic regions derived from experimental recordings. We found that extracellular longitudinal and intracellular longitudinal conductivities predominately affected simulation output, with the highest standard deviations in regions of extracellular potential elevations. We found that transverse conductivity had almost no effect on model output.