Systematic Data-Driven Modeling of Bimetallic Catalyst Performance for the Hydrogenation of 5-Ethoxymethylfurfural with Variable Selection and Regularization.

Catalyst development for biorefining applications involves many challenges. Mathematical modeling can be seen as an essential tool in assisting to explain catalyst performance. This paper presents studies on several machine learning (ML) methods that can model the performance of heterogeneous catalysts with relevant descriptors. A systematic approach for selecting the most appropriate ML method is taken with focus on the variable selection. Regularization algorithms were applied to variable selection. Several different candidate model structures were compared in modeling with interpretation of results. The systematic modeling approach presented aims to highlight the necessary tools and aspects to unexperienced users of ML. Literature datasets for the hydrogenation of 5-ethoxymethylfurfural with simple bimetal catalysts, including main metals and promoters, were studied with the addition of catalyst descriptors found in the literature. Good results were obtained with the best models for estimating conversion, selectivity, and yield with correlations between 0.90 and 0.98. The best identified model structures were support vector regression, Gaussian process regression, and decision tree methods. In general, the use of variable selection procedures was found to improve the performance of models. The modeling methods applied thus seem to exhibit a strong potential in aiding catalyst development based mainly on the information content of descriptor datasets.