Earth System Division, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba 3058506, Japan.
Sci Total Environ. 2022 Aug 15;834:155334. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.155334. Epub 2022 Apr 19.
In China, the rapid development of the economy and implementation of multiple emission control policies in recent decades have been accompanied by dramatic changes in air quality. In this study, PM concentrations estimated by using MERRA-2 reanalysis data were integrated into the Global Exposure Mortality Model (GEMM) to explore the spatiotemporal variation of nationwide PM-related premature mortality from 1990 to 2019, and the driving factors behind decadal changes were evaluated. Since 2000, as a result of PM pollution, air quality in China has deteriorated substantially, especially in the fast-developing eastern and southern parts. In 2009, the nationwide population-weighted (PW) PM concentration peaked at 41.4 μg/m (95% confidence interval [CI], 36.7-46.2). Simultaneously, the GEMM results revealed that nationwide PM-related deaths increased remarkably from 1089 (95% CI, 965-1210) thousand in 1990 to 1795 (1597-1986) thousand in 2009. The implementation of the toughest-ever Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan (APPCAP) in 2013 effectively controlled PM pollution in China. By 2018, the nationwide PW PM concentration had decreased to 34.0 (29.2-38.9) μg/m. Dynamic trend prediction revealed that, although the APPCAP achieved substantial health benefits, the policy did not result in further remarkable reductions in PM-related deaths; in 2019, deaths peaked at 1932 (1716-2140) thousand. PM-related deaths in 2030 were projected for each of four emission control scenarios. The results of the driving factor analysis and the future projections indicated that the health benefits from improving air quality are likely to be counterbalanced by changes in the population age structure. Because population ageing is becoming more and more rapid in China and the challenge of climate change is increasing, the results of this study imply that policymakers need to implement more stringent measures and set more ambitious emission control targets to reduce nationwide PM-related premature mortality in the future.
在中国，近几十年来经济的快速发展和多项排放控制政策的实施，伴随着空气质量的显著变化。本研究利用 MERRA-2 再分析数据估算的 PM 浓度，结合全球暴露死亡率模型（GEMM），探索了 1990 年至 2019 年全国范围内与 PM 相关的过早死亡的时空变化，并评估了其背后的驱动因素。自 2000 年以来，由于 PM 污染，中国的空气质量大幅恶化，尤其是在快速发展的东部和南部地区。2009 年，全国人口加权（PW）PM 浓度达到 41.4μg/m（95%置信区间[CI]，36.7-46.2）的峰值。同时，GEMM 结果显示，全国范围内与 PM 相关的死亡人数从 1990 年的 108.9（95%CI，96.5-121.0）千增加到 2009 年的 179.5（159.7-198.6）千。2013 年实施的有史以来最严格的《大气污染防治行动计划》（APPCAP）有效地控制了中国的 PM 污染。到 2018 年，全国 PW PM 浓度已降至 34.0μg/m（29.2-38.9）。动态趋势预测表明，尽管 APPCAP 取得了显著的健康效益，但该政策并未导致与 PM 相关的死亡人数进一步显著减少；2019 年，死亡人数达到 193.2（171.6-214）千。对四个排放控制情景下的 2030 年与 PM 相关的死亡人数进行了预测。驱动因素分析和未来预测结果表明，空气质量改善带来的健康效益可能会因人口年龄结构的变化而被抵消。由于中国人口老龄化速度越来越快，气候变化的挑战也越来越大，本研究的结果表明，决策者需要实施更严格的措施，设定更具雄心的排放控制目标，以减少未来全国范围内与 PM 相关的过早死亡人数。
