文献检索文档翻译深度研究
Suppr Zotero 插件Zotero 插件
邀请有礼套餐&价格历史记录

新学期,新优惠

限时优惠:9月1日-9月22日

30天高级会员仅需29元

1天体验卡首发特惠仅需5.99元

了解详情
不再提醒
插件&应用
Suppr Zotero 插件Zotero 插件浏览器插件Mac 客户端Windows 客户端微信小程序
高级版
套餐订阅购买积分包
AI 工具
文献检索文档翻译深度研究
关于我们
关于 Suppr公司介绍联系我们用户协议隐私条款
关注我们

Suppr 超能文献

核心技术专利:CN118964589B侵权必究
粤ICP备2023148730 号-1Suppr @ 2025

2013 - 2050年中国人口老龄化和区域不平等驱动的臭氧致死负担变化

Ozone Mortality Burden Changes Driven by Population Aging and Regional Inequity in China in 2013-2050.

作者信息

Chen Xiaokang, Jiang Zhe, Shen Yanan, Wang Shuxiao, Shindell Drew, Zhang Yuqiang

机构信息

School of Earth and Space Sciences University of Science and Technology of China Hefei China.

State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control School of Environment Tsinghua University Beijing China.

出版信息

Geohealth. 2024 Jul 29;8(8):e2024GH001058. doi: 10.1029/2024GH001058. eCollection 2024 Aug.


DOI:10.1029/2024GH001058
PMID:39086930
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11286545/
Abstract

Air pollution exposure is closely linked to population age and socioeconomic status. Population aging and imbalance in regional economy are thus anticipated to have important implications on ozone (O)-related health impacts. Here we provide a driver analysis for O mortality burden due to respiratory disease in China over 2013-2050 driven by population aging and regional inequity. Unexpectedly, we find that population aging is estimated to result in dramatic rises in annual O mortality burden in China; by 56, 101-137, and 298-485 thousand over the periods 2013-2020, 2020-2030, and 2030-2050, respectively. This reflects the exponential rise in baseline mortality rates with increasing age. The aging-induced mortality burden rise in 2030-2050 is surprisingly large, as it is comparable to the net national mortality burden due to O exposure in 2030 (359-399 thousand yr). The health impacts of O pollution, shown as mortality burden per capita, are inequitably distributed, with more severe effects in less developed provinces than their developed counterparts by 23.1% and 21.5% in 2019 and 2030, respectively. However, the regional inequity in O mortality burden is expected to be mitigated in 2050. This temporal variation reflects evolving demographic dividend characterized by a larger proportion of younger individuals in developed regions. These findings are critical for targeted improvement of healthcare services to ensure the sustainability of social development.

摘要

空气污染暴露与人口年龄和社会经济地位密切相关。因此,预计人口老龄化和区域经济失衡将对与臭氧(O)相关的健康影响产生重要影响。在此,我们针对2013年至2050年中国因人口老龄化和区域不平等导致的呼吸系统疾病O死亡负担进行驱动因素分析。出乎意料的是,我们发现人口老龄化预计将导致中国每年O死亡负担急剧上升;在2013 - 2020年、2020 - 2030年和2030 - 2050年期间分别增加5.6万、10.1万 - 13.7万和29.8万 - 48.5万。这反映了随着年龄增长基线死亡率呈指数上升。2030 - 2050年老龄化导致的死亡负担上升幅度惊人,因为它与2030年因O暴露导致的全国净死亡负担(35.9万 - 39.9万年)相当。O污染的健康影响以人均死亡负担表示,分布不均,2019年和2030年欠发达省份的影响分别比发达省份严重23.1%和21.5%。然而,预计到2050年O死亡负担的区域不平等将得到缓解。这种时间变化反映了以发达地区年轻人口比例较大为特征的不断演变的人口红利。这些发现对于有针对性地改善医疗服务以确保社会发展的可持续性至关重要。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/a1fc/11286545/f6aa491c26dc/GH2-8-e2024GH001058-g005.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/a1fc/11286545/3eb6d118cd26/GH2-8-e2024GH001058-g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/a1fc/11286545/5f631170e53d/GH2-8-e2024GH001058-g004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/a1fc/11286545/b933bdc77aff/GH2-8-e2024GH001058-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/a1fc/11286545/0c4ef77e8ce0/GH2-8-e2024GH001058-g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/a1fc/11286545/f6aa491c26dc/GH2-8-e2024GH001058-g005.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/a1fc/11286545/3eb6d118cd26/GH2-8-e2024GH001058-g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/a1fc/11286545/5f631170e53d/GH2-8-e2024GH001058-g004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/a1fc/11286545/b933bdc77aff/GH2-8-e2024GH001058-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/a1fc/11286545/0c4ef77e8ce0/GH2-8-e2024GH001058-g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/a1fc/11286545/f6aa491c26dc/GH2-8-e2024GH001058-g005.jpg

相似文献

[1]
Ozone Mortality Burden Changes Driven by Population Aging and Regional Inequity in China in 2013-2050.

Geohealth. 2024-7-29

[2]
Increases in ozone-related mortality in China over 2013-2030 attributed to historical ozone deterioration and future population aging.

Sci Total Environ. 2023-2-1

[3]
Drivers of ozone-related premature mortality in China: Implications for historical and future scenarios.

J Environ Manage. 2023-11-1

[4]
Multicity study of air pollution and mortality in Latin America (the ESCALA study).

Res Rep Health Eff Inst. 2012-10

[5]
Mortality-Air Pollution Associations in Low Exposure Environments (MAPLE): Phase 2.

Res Rep Health Eff Inst. 2022-7

[6]
Mortality and Morbidity Effects of Long-Term Exposure to Low-Level PM, BC, NO, and O: An Analysis of European Cohorts in the ELAPSE Project.

Res Rep Health Eff Inst. 2021-9

[7]
Long-term ambient ozone exposure and incident cardiovascular diseases: National cohort evidence in China.

J Hazard Mater. 2024-6-5

[8]
[Health Benefit Evaluation for PM as Well as O Pollution Control in Chengdu, China from 2016 to 2020].

Huan Jing Ke Xue. 2023-6-8

[9]
Projecting ozone-related mortality in East China.

Environ Int. 2016-4-20

[10]
Long-term ozone exposure and all-cause mortality: Cohort evidence in China and global heterogeneity by region.

Ecotoxicol Environ Saf. 2024-1-15

引用本文的文献

[1]
Multiscale spatial heterogeneity of population aging in relation to its influential factors: a case study in the Shaanxi-Gansu region, China.

Front Public Health. 2025-3-27

本文引用的文献

[1]
Continued Rise in Health Burden from Ambient PM in India under SSP Scenarios Until 2100 despite Decreasing Concentrations.

Environ Sci Technol. 2024-5-21

[2]
Mortality Burden of Cardiovascular Disease Attributable to Ozone in China: 2019 vs 2050.

Environ Sci Technol. 2023-8-1

[3]
Excess mortality associated with high ozone exposure: A national cohort study in China.

Environ Sci Ecotechnol. 2023-1-21

[4]
Increases in ozone-related mortality in China over 2013-2030 attributed to historical ozone deterioration and future population aging.

Sci Total Environ. 2023-2-1

[5]
Long-term exposure to ozone and cardiovascular mortality in China: a nationwide cohort study.

Lancet Planet Health. 2022-6

[6]
Decadal changes in PM-related health impacts in China from 1990 to 2019 and implications for current and future emission controls.

Sci Total Environ. 2022-8-15

[7]
Air pollution exposure disparities across US population and income groups.

Nature. 2022-1

[8]
Global urban temporal trends in fine particulate matter (PM) and attributable health burdens: estimates from global datasets.

Lancet Planet Health. 2022-2

[9]
Tracking PM and O Pollution and the Related Health Burden in China 2013-2020.

Environ Sci Technol. 2022-6-7

[10]
Population ageing and deaths attributable to ambient PM pollution: a global analysis of economic cost.

Lancet Planet Health. 2021-6

文献AI研究员

20分钟写一篇综述,助力文献阅读效率提升50倍

立即体验

用中文搜PubMed

大模型驱动的PubMed中文搜索引擎

马上搜索

推荐工具

医学文档翻译智能文献检索