Chen Xiaokang, Jiang Zhe, Shen Yanan, Wang Shuxiao, Shindell Drew, Zhang Yuqiang
School of Earth and Space Sciences University of Science and Technology of China Hefei China.
State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control School of Environment Tsinghua University Beijing China.
Geohealth. 2024 Jul 29;8(8):e2024GH001058. doi: 10.1029/2024GH001058. eCollection 2024 Aug.
Air pollution exposure is closely linked to population age and socioeconomic status. Population aging and imbalance in regional economy are thus anticipated to have important implications on ozone (O)-related health impacts. Here we provide a driver analysis for O mortality burden due to respiratory disease in China over 2013-2050 driven by population aging and regional inequity. Unexpectedly, we find that population aging is estimated to result in dramatic rises in annual O mortality burden in China; by 56, 101-137, and 298-485 thousand over the periods 2013-2020, 2020-2030, and 2030-2050, respectively. This reflects the exponential rise in baseline mortality rates with increasing age. The aging-induced mortality burden rise in 2030-2050 is surprisingly large, as it is comparable to the net national mortality burden due to O exposure in 2030 (359-399 thousand yr). The health impacts of O pollution, shown as mortality burden per capita, are inequitably distributed, with more severe effects in less developed provinces than their developed counterparts by 23.1% and 21.5% in 2019 and 2030, respectively. However, the regional inequity in O mortality burden is expected to be mitigated in 2050. This temporal variation reflects evolving demographic dividend characterized by a larger proportion of younger individuals in developed regions. These findings are critical for targeted improvement of healthcare services to ensure the sustainability of social development.
空气污染暴露与人口年龄和社会经济地位密切相关。因此,预计人口老龄化和区域经济失衡将对与臭氧(O)相关的健康影响产生重要影响。在此,我们针对2013年至2050年中国因人口老龄化和区域不平等导致的呼吸系统疾病O死亡负担进行驱动因素分析。出乎意料的是,我们发现人口老龄化预计将导致中国每年O死亡负担急剧上升;在2013 - 2020年、2020 - 2030年和2030 - 2050年期间分别增加5.6万、10.1万 - 13.7万和29.8万 - 48.5万。这反映了随着年龄增长基线死亡率呈指数上升。2030 - 2050年老龄化导致的死亡负担上升幅度惊人,因为它与2030年因O暴露导致的全国净死亡负担(35.9万 - 39.9万年)相当。O污染的健康影响以人均死亡负担表示,分布不均,2019年和2030年欠发达省份的影响分别比发达省份严重23.1%和21.5%。然而,预计到2050年O死亡负担的区域不平等将得到缓解。这种时间变化反映了以发达地区年轻人口比例较大为特征的不断演变的人口红利。这些发现对于有针对性地改善医疗服务以确保社会发展的可持续性至关重要。
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