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日历异常现象新探:多重分形与星期效应

A New Look at Calendar Anomalies: Multifractality and Day-of-the-Week Effect.

作者信息

Stosic Darko, Stosic Dusan, Vodenska Irena, Stanley H Eugene, Stosic Tatijana

机构信息

Centro de Informática, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, Av. Luiz Freire s/n, Recife 50670-901, PE, Brazil.

Department of Administrative Sciences, Metropolitan College, Boston University, 1010 Commonwealth Avenue, Boston, MA 02215, USA.

出版信息

Entropy (Basel). 2022 Apr 17;24(4):562. doi: 10.3390/e24040562.

Abstract

Stock markets can become inefficient due to calendar anomalies known as the day-of-the-week effect. Calendar anomalies are well known in the financial literature, but the phenomena remain to be explored in econophysics. This paper uses multifractal analysis to evaluate if the temporal dynamics of market returns also exhibit calendar anomalies such as day-of-the-week effects. We apply multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) to the daily returns of market indices worldwide for each day of the week. Our results indicate that distinct multifractal properties characterize individual days of the week. Monday returns tend to exhibit more persistent behavior and richer multifractal structures than other day-resolved returns. Shuffling the series reveals that multifractality arises from a broad probability density function and long-term correlations. The time-dependent multifractal analysis shows that the Monday returns' multifractal spectra are much wider than those of other days. This behavior is especially persistent during financial crises. The presence of day-of-the-week effects in multifractal dynamics of market returns motivates further research on calendar anomalies for distinct market regimes.

摘要

由于被称为“星期效应”的日历异常现象,股票市场可能会变得低效。日历异常现象在金融文献中广为人知,但在经济物理学中仍有待探索。本文使用多重分形分析来评估市场回报的时间动态是否也表现出诸如星期效应之类的日历异常现象。我们将多重分形去趋势波动分析(MF-DFA)应用于全球市场指数一周中每一天的日回报。我们的结果表明,一周中的各个日子具有独特的多重分形特性。与其他按日解析的回报相比,周一的回报往往表现出更持久的行为和更丰富的多重分形结构。对序列进行重排后发现,多重分形性源于广泛的概率密度函数和长期相关性。随时间变化的多重分形分析表明,周一回报的多重分形谱比其他日子的要宽得多。这种行为在金融危机期间尤为持久。市场回报多重分形动态中星期效应的存在促使人们进一步研究不同市场状态下的日历异常现象。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3896/9031867/a6648310444a/entropy-24-00562-g001.jpg

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