Department of Biology, Georgetown University, Washington, DC, USA.
Center for Global Health Science & Security, Georgetown University, Washington, DC, USA.
Nature. 2022 Jul;607(7919):555-562. doi: 10.1038/s41586-022-04788-w. Epub 2022 Apr 28.
At least 10,000 virus species have the ability to infect humans but, at present, the vast majority are circulating silently in wild mammals. However, changes in climate and land use will lead to opportunities for viral sharing among previously geographically isolated species of wildlife. In some cases, this will facilitate zoonotic spillover-a mechanistic link between global environmental change and disease emergence. Here we simulate potential hotspots of future viral sharing, using a phylogeographical model of the mammal-virus network, and projections of geographical range shifts for 3,139 mammal species under climate-change and land-use scenarios for the year 2070. We predict that species will aggregate in new combinations at high elevations, in biodiversity hotspots, and in areas of high human population density in Asia and Africa, causing the cross-species transmission of their associated viruses an estimated 4,000 times. Owing to their unique dispersal ability, bats account for the majority of novel viral sharing and are likely to share viruses along evolutionary pathways that will facilitate future emergence in humans. Notably, we find that this ecological transition may already be underway, and holding warming under 2 °C within the twenty-first century will not reduce future viral sharing. Our findings highlight an urgent need to pair viral surveillance and discovery efforts with biodiversity surveys tracking the range shifts of species, especially in tropical regions that contain the most zoonoses and are experiencing rapid warming.
至少有 10000 种病毒物种有能力感染人类，但目前绝大多数都在野生动物中默默传播。然而，气候和土地利用的变化将为以前地理上隔离的野生动物物种之间的病毒共享提供机会。在某些情况下，这将促进人畜共患病溢出——即全球环境变化与疾病出现之间的机制联系。在这里，我们使用哺乳动物-病毒网络的系统地理学模型，以及 3139 种哺乳动物物种的地理范围在气候变化和土地利用情景下的预测，模拟未来病毒共享的潜在热点。我们预测，在高海拔地区、生物多样性热点地区和亚洲和非洲人口密度高的地区，物种将以新的组合方式聚集在一起，导致其相关病毒在物种间传播，估计有 4000 次。由于蝙蝠独特的扩散能力，它们在新的病毒共享中占了很大比例，并且可能沿着有利于未来在人类中出现的进化途径共享病毒。值得注意的是，我们发现这种生态转变可能已经在进行中，而且在 21 世纪内将升温控制在 2°C 以下，也不会减少未来的病毒共享。我们的研究结果强调迫切需要将病毒监测和发现工作与跟踪物种地理范围变化的生物多样性调查相结合，特别是在包含最多人畜共患病并经历快速升温的热带地区。
