EcoHealth Alliance, New York, NY, USA.
Institute of Evolutionary Biology, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Scotland.
Nat Commun. 2020 May 8;11(1):2260. doi: 10.1038/s41467-020-16153-4.
Understanding interspecific viral transmission is key to understanding viral ecology and evolution, disease spillover into humans, and the consequences of global change. Prior studies have uncovered macroecological drivers of viral sharing, but analyses have never attempted to predict viral sharing in a pan-mammalian context. Using a conservative modelling framework, we confirm that host phylogenetic similarity and geographic range overlap are strong, nonlinear predictors of viral sharing among species across the entire mammal class. Using these traits, we predict global viral sharing patterns of 4196 mammal species and show that our simulated network successfully predicts viral sharing and reservoir host status using internal validation and an external dataset. We predict high rates of mammalian viral sharing in the tropics, particularly among rodents and bats, and within- and between-order sharing differed geographically and taxonomically. Our results emphasize the importance of ecological and phylogenetic factors in shaping mammalian viral communities, and provide a robust, general model to predict viral host range and guide pathogen surveillance and conservation efforts.
理解种间病毒传播对于理解病毒生态学和进化、病毒溢出到人类以及全球变化的后果至关重要。先前的研究已经揭示了病毒共享的宏观生态驱动因素，但分析从未试图在全哺乳动物范围内预测病毒共享。使用保守的建模框架，我们确认宿主系统发育相似性和地理范围重叠是物种间病毒共享的强非线性预测因子，跨越整个哺乳动物类。利用这些特征，我们预测了 4196 种哺乳动物物种的全球病毒共享模式，并表明我们模拟的网络使用内部验证和外部数据集成功预测了病毒共享和储主宿主状态。我们预测热带地区哺乳动物病毒共享率较高，特别是在啮齿动物和蝙蝠中，以及在同一和不同目之间的共享在地理和分类上存在差异。我们的研究结果强调了生态和系统发育因素在塑造哺乳动物病毒群落中的重要性，并提供了一种强大、通用的模型来预测病毒宿主范围，并指导病原体监测和保护工作。
