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评估财政政策、COVID-19 和经济增长之间的关系。

Assessing the nexus between fiscal policy, COVID-19, and economic growth.

机构信息

School of Finance and Taxation, Capital University of Economics and Business, Beijing, 100081, China.

School of Economics, Peking University, Beijing, Beijing, 100871, China.

出版信息

Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2022 Sep;29(43):65289-65303. doi: 10.1007/s11356-022-20358-z. Epub 2022 Apr 29.

Abstract

The COVID-19 issue deteriorated South Africa's already dire economic situation, exacerbated by years of considerable debt increase. The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted trade to such an extent that some enterprises are barely working at a quarter of their potential. Furthermore, economic agents delay economic decisions while waiting to see how the crisis develops. According to some economists, increased government expenditure will raise GDP enough to keep the country's debt-to-GDP ratio steady and restore fiscal sustainability. We use a panel data model to estimate a fiscal reaction function, which we then apply to historical data to assess the government's prior efforts to maintain or restore budgetary sustainability. We calculate the impact fiscal balance, government expenditure, interest rate, and revenue changes that the government will have to make to restore the country's fiscal stability due to the financial impact of the COVID-19 issue.The findings show that fiscal balance and tax revinue have a significant impact on the economics growth, while government expenditure and corruption reduce the growth of the country.

摘要

新冠疫情问题使南非本已严峻的经济形势恶化,再加上多年来债务大幅增加,情况更是雪上加霜。新冠疫情大流行严重扰乱了贸易,一些企业的产能仅为其潜力的四分之一。此外,经济主体在等待危机发展的同时,推迟经济决策。一些经济学家认为,增加政府支出将足以提高 GDP,使该国的债务与 GDP 之比保持稳定,并恢复财政可持续性。我们使用面板数据模型来估计财政反应函数,然后将其应用于历史数据,以评估政府为维持或恢复预算可持续性而做出的先前努力。我们计算了政府为恢复国家财政稳定而必须做出的财政收支平衡、政府支出、利率和税收变化的影响,这是由于新冠疫情问题对金融的影响。研究结果表明,财政收支平衡和税收对经济增长有重大影响,而政府支出和腐败则会降低国家的经济增长。

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本文引用的文献

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Fiscal policy during a pandemic.疫情期间的财政政策。
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