Department of Health Management and Policy, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA.
Nicotine Tob Res. 2022 Oct 26;24(11):1727-1731. doi: 10.1093/ntr/ntac115.
We calculate the U.S. adult smoking cessation rate for 2014-2019, compare it to the historical trend, and estimate the implication for future smoking prevalence.
We repeated an earlier analysis, which examined the cessation rate from 1990 to 2014, extending the period to 2019. Employing National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) and National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH) data, we estimated the adult cessation rate in 6-year intervals, using weighted nonlinear least squares. We then employed a meta-regression model to test whether the cessation rate has increased beyond expectation. We used cessation rate estimates and smoking initiation rate estimates to project smoking prevalence in 2030 and eventual steady-state prevalence.
The annual cessation rate increased 29% using NHIS data (from 4.2% in 2008-2013 to 5.4% in 2014-2019) and 33% with NSDUH data (4.2%-5.6%). The cessation rate increase accounts for 60% of a smoking prevalence decline in the most recent period exceeding the 1990-2013 predicted trend. The remaining 40% owes to declining smoking initiation. With current initiation and cessation rates, smoking prevalence should fall to 8.3% in 2030 and eventually reach a steady state of 3.53%.
The smoking cessation rate continued to increase during 2014-2019. NHIS and NSDUH results are practically identical. The larger share (60%) of the smoking prevalence decrease, beyond expectation, attributable to the increased cessation rate is encouraging since the positive health effects of cessation occur much sooner than those derived from declining initiation.
The smoking cessation rate in the United States continues to increase, accelerating the decline in smoking prevalence. This increase suggests that the Healthy People 2030 goal of 5% adult smoking prevalence, while ambitious, is attainable. Our findings can be used in simulation and statistical models that aim to predict future prevalence and population health effects due to smoking under various scenarios.
我们计算了 2014-2019 年美国成年人的戒烟率，将其与历史趋势进行比较，并估计其对未来吸烟流行率的影响。
我们重复了早期的一项分析，该分析检查了 1990 年至 2014 年的戒烟率，并将该时期延长至 2019 年。利用全国健康访谈调查（NHIS）和全国药物使用和健康调查（NSDUH）数据，我们使用加权非线性最小二乘法，以 6 年为间隔估算成年戒烟率。然后，我们使用荟萃回归模型检验戒烟率是否超出预期。我们使用戒烟率估计值和吸烟起始率估计值预测 2030 年的吸烟流行率和最终的稳定流行率。
使用 NHIS 数据，每年的戒烟率增加了 29%（从 2008-2013 年的 4.2%增加到 2014-2019 年的 5.4%），使用 NSDUH 数据增加了 33%（从 4.2%增加到 5.6%）。在最近的时期内，戒烟率的上升导致吸烟流行率下降了 60%，超出了 1990-2013 年的预测趋势。其余的 40%归因于吸烟起始率的下降。按照目前的起始和戒烟率，吸烟流行率应在 2030 年下降到 8.3%，最终达到 3.53%的稳定水平。
2014-2019 年期间，戒烟率持续上升。NHIS 和 NSDUH 的结果几乎相同。更大的（60%）部分（超出预期）归因于戒烟率的上升，这是令人鼓舞的，因为戒烟带来的积极健康效果比起始率下降带来的效果更早出现。
美国的戒烟率继续上升，加速了吸烟流行率的下降。这种上升表明，“健康人民 2030”目标中 5%的成年吸烟率虽然具有挑战性，但是可以实现的。我们的研究结果可用于模拟和统计模型，旨在根据各种情况预测未来的流行率和吸烟对人口健康的影响。
