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新冠疫情和国际油价对中国能源、经济及环境的影响与反应。

The effects and reacts of COVID-19 pandemic and international oil price on energy, economy, and environment in China.

作者信息

Jia Zhijie, Wen Shiyan, Lin Boqiang

机构信息

School of Economics and Finance, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, Shaanxi 710049, PR China.

Research center for energy economics and low-carbon development, Minjiang University, Fuzhou 350108, PR China.

出版信息

Appl Energy. 2021 Nov 15;302:117612. doi: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.117612. Epub 2021 Aug 16.

Abstract

In 2020, the world experienced several significant events, including the COVID-19 pandemic and the collapse of international crude oil prices. Both have a great impact on a sustainable economy. Taking China as an example, we use a computable general equilibrium model with multi-sectors and multi-households and consider six different scenarios to simulate and evaluate the aggregate impacts of the pandemic and crude oil prices. We divide the impact of the pandemic into the changes of factor input and the changes of consumer preference and find that the decline of factor input is the leading cause of the economic downturn. The sharp drop in crude oil prices has a significant negative impact on the low-carbon economy. Although the pandemic has led to a decline in global carbon emissions, it is only because of the economic downturn. The epidemic situation and the change of oil price have double impacts on the economy, especially the sustainable economy. Adjusting the price gap between fossil energy and renewable energy (e.g., more stringent carbon pricing) and appropriate tax cuts on residents may be effective ways to alleviate the impact, which should be one of the environmental policies in the post-COVID-19 era.

摘要

2020年,世界经历了若干重大事件,包括新冠疫情和国际原油价格暴跌。两者均对可持续经济产生了巨大影响。以中国为例,我们使用一个多部门、多住户的可计算一般均衡模型,并考虑六种不同情景来模拟和评估疫情及原油价格的总体影响。我们将疫情的影响分为要素投入变化和消费者偏好变化,发现要素投入下降是经济衰退的主要原因。原油价格的大幅下跌对低碳经济产生了重大负面影响。尽管疫情导致全球碳排放量下降,但这仅仅是由于经济衰退。疫情形势和油价变化对经济,尤其是可持续经济产生了双重影响。调整化石能源与可再生能源之间的价格差距(例如,实行更严格的碳定价)以及对居民适当减税可能是缓解影响的有效途径,这应成为后新冠疫情时代环境政策的一部分。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/b91d/9043782/758988676657/gr1_lrg.jpg

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