Sun Mingsong, Cao Xinyuan, Liu Xuan, Cao Tingting, Zhu Qirong
School of Economics and Finance, Huaqiao University, Quanzhou, 362021, China.
School of Professional Studies, Columbia University, New York, 10027-6902, USA.
Heliyon. 2024 Jul 20;10(16):e34712. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e34712. eCollection 2024 Aug 30.
This study examines the economic impact of soaring international energy prices during the Russia-Ukraine conflict from February 23, 2022, to May 31, 2022. Notably, by applying a CGE model, this study offers insights into energy policies at both macroeconomic and industrial levels, emphasizing the model's utility in analyzing complex economic interactions under geopolitical stress. Findings indicate that: , faced severe economic setbacks due to sanctions, with its GDP contracting by 5.5 %, household income decreasing by 4 %, and consumer spending dropping by 3.5 %. This was accompanied by a significant reduction in domestic investment by 6 %, a decline in output by 5 %, and a decrease in societal welfare indicators. , such as the Middle Eastern oil-producing countries, Australia, Canada, Mexico, and Southeast Asia, experienced economic benefits from the global energy market's "crowding-out effect." These regions saw an increase in GDP ranging from 2 % to 4.5 %, output growth by 3 %-6 %, and household income and consumption improvements by approximately 3 %-5 %. However, these benefits were tempered by a 1 %-2.5 % decline in domestic investment due to rising local energy costs. suffered adverse impacts, including the US, UK, EU, Japan, China, South Asia, Middle Eastern non-oil-producing countries, and Africa. These regions reported a decrease in GDP by 0.5 %-3 %, a decline in household income by 2 %-4 %, and lower consumption rates by 1.5 %-3.5 %. The economic strain was further exacerbated by an inflation increase of up to 2 % across these economies. This research offers valuable insights for governments and policymakers globally to address the challenges posed by the Ukraine crisis-induced energy crisis, underscoring the need for strategic energy policy adjustments and economic resilience planning.
本研究考察了2022年2月23日至2022年5月31日俄乌冲突期间国际能源价格飙升的经济影响。值得注意的是，通过应用可计算一般均衡（CGE）模型，本研究在宏观经济和产业层面上提供了对能源政策的见解，强调了该模型在分析地缘政治压力下复杂经济互动方面的效用。研究结果表明： ，因制裁面临严重经济挫折，其国内生产总值（GDP）收缩5.5%，家庭收入下降4%，消费支出下降3.5%。与此同时，国内投资大幅减少6%，产出下降5%，社会福利指标降低。 ，如中东产油国、澳大利亚、加拿大、墨西哥和东南亚，受益于全球能源市场的“挤出效应”。这些地区的GDP增长2%至4.5%，产出增长3% - 6%，家庭收入和消费提高约3% - 5%。然而，由于当地能源成本上升，国内投资下降1% - 2.5%，削弱了这些收益。 受到不利影响，包括美国、英国、欧盟、日本、中国、南亚、中东非产油国和非洲。这些地区报告GDP下降0.5% - 3%，家庭收入下降2% - 4%，消费率降低1.5% - 3.5%。这些经济体通货膨胀率上升高达2%，进一步加剧了经济压力。这项研究为全球各国政府和政策制定者应对乌克兰危机引发的能源危机带来的挑战提供了宝贵见解，强调了战略能源政策调整和经济韧性规划的必要性。
