Department of Geriatric Medicine, Huadong Hospital, Shanghai Medical College, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.
Shanghai Key Laboratory of Clinical Geriatric Medicine, Huadong Hospital, Shanghai, China.
Front Cell Infect Microbiol. 2022 Apr 19;12:836409. doi: 10.3389/fcimb.2022.836409. eCollection 2022.
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has led to unprecedented global challenges. A zero-COVID strategy is needed to end the crisis, but there is a lack of biological evidence. In the present study, we collected available data on SARS, MERS, and COVID-19 to perform a comprehensive comparative analysis and visualization. The study results revealed that the fatality rate of COVID-19 is low, whereas its death toll is high compared to SARS and MERS. Moreover, COVID-19 had a higher asymptomatic rate. In particular, COVID-19 exhibited unique asymptomatic transmissibility. Further, we developed a foolproof operating software in Python language to simulate COVID-19 spread in Wuhan, showing that the cumulative cases of existing asymptomatic spread would be over 100 times higher than that of only symptomatic spread. This confirmed the essential role of asymptomatic transmissibility in the uncontrolled global spread of COVID-19, which enables the necessity of implementing the zero-COVID policy. In conclusion, we revealed the triggering role of the asymptomatic transmissibility of COVID-19 in this unprecedented global crisis, which offers support to the zero-COVID strategy against the recurring COVID-19 spread.
2019 年冠状病毒病（COVID-19）大流行带来了前所未有的全球挑战。需要采取“零新冠”策略来结束这场危机，但目前缺乏生物学证据。在本研究中，我们收集了 SARS、MERS 和 COVID-19 的现有数据，以进行全面的比较分析和可视化。研究结果表明，与 SARS 和 MERS 相比，COVID-19 的病死率较低，但死亡人数较高。此外，COVID-19 的无症状感染率较高。特别是，COVID-19 表现出独特的无症状传染性。此外，我们用 Python 语言开发了一款可靠的操作软件，以模拟 COVID-19 在武汉的传播情况，结果表明，现有的无症状传播的累计病例数将比仅出现症状的传播高出 100 多倍。这证实了无症状传播在 COVID-19 全球失控传播中的重要作用，这使得实施“零新冠”政策成为必要。总之，我们揭示了 COVID-19 无症状传播在这场前所未有的全球危机中的触发作用，为应对 COVID-19 反复传播的“零新冠”策略提供了支持。
