Hou Guo-Long, Hu Zhong-Min
School of Geography, South China Normal University, Guangzhou 510631, China.
Couege of Ecology and Environment, Hainan University, Haikou 570228, China.
Ying Yong Sheng Tai Xue Bao. 2022 Mar;33(3):629-637. doi: 10.13287/j.1001-9332.202203.022.
Global changes have a profound impact on ecosystems. If the disturbance caused by global change exceeds a certain degree, ecosystem resilience will be reduced, extreme events will be frequent, and ecosystem services will be degraded or even lost. Quantifying the risks of global change and developing appropriate adaptation strategies is an important way to deal with the risks of global change. Global change may reduce ecosystem resilience, leading to increased vulnerability and the risk of ecosystem degradation. The risk of ecosystem degradation is currently quantified mainly by the safe operating space assessment method based on planetary boundary theory. Understanding the concepts of ecosystem resilience, vulnerability, planetary boundaries, and safe operating spaces and their relationships is an important prerequisite for addressing the risks of global change. By summarizing the relevant theories of ecosystem vulnerability, we combined the concepts related to ecosystem resilience and vulnerability, global change risk and human adaptation, proposed a conceptual framework of ecosystem global change risk and human adaptation based on the vulnerability theory. Based on the logic of this proposed framework, we successively introduced the characteristics and mechanism of global change interference on ecosystem vulnerability, elaborated the assessment theories and methods of ecosystem vulnerability, and how to adopt human adaptation measures to alleviate the risk of global changes, aiming to provide ideas for coping with the risk of global change.
全球变化对生态系统有着深远的影响。如果全球变化造成的干扰超过一定程度，生态系统的恢复力将会降低，极端事件将频繁发生，生态系统服务也会退化甚至丧失。量化全球变化风险并制定适当的适应策略是应对全球变化风险的重要途径。全球变化可能会降低生态系统的恢复力，导致脆弱性增加以及生态系统退化风险上升。目前，生态系统退化风险主要通过基于行星边界理论的安全运行空间评估方法来量化。理解生态系统恢复力、脆弱性、行星边界和安全运行空间的概念及其相互关系，是应对全球变化风险的重要前提。通过总结生态系统脆弱性的相关理论，我们将与生态系统恢复力和脆弱性、全球变化风险及人类适应相关的概念相结合，基于脆弱性理论提出了一个生态系统全球变化风险与人类适应的概念框架。基于这一框架的逻辑，我们先后介绍了全球变化对生态系统脆弱性干扰的特征和机制，阐述了生态系统脆弱性的评估理论和方法，以及如何采取人类适应措施来减轻全球变化的风险，旨在为应对全球变化风险提供思路。
