Department of Biological Sciences, University of South Carolina, Columbia, South Carolina, USA.
Division of Biological Sciences, University of Montana, Missoula, Montana, USA.
Ecology. 2022 Sep;103(9):e3743. doi: 10.1002/ecy.3743. Epub 2022 Jun 12.
Climate change has caused shifts in seasonally recurring biological events leading to the temporal decoupling of consumer-resource pairs, that is, phenological mismatching. Although mismatches often affect individual fitness, they do not invariably scale up to affect populations, making it difficult to assess the risk they pose. Individual variation may contribute to this inconsistency, with changes in resource availability and consumer needs leading mismatches to have different outcomes over time. Nevertheless, most models estimate a consumer's match from a single time point, potentially obscuring when mismatches matter to populations. We analyzed how the effects of mismatches varied over time by studying precocial Hudsonian godwit (Limosa haemastica) chicks and their invertebrate prey from 2009 to 2019. We developed individual- and population-level models to determine how age-specific variation affects the relationship between godwits and resource availability. We found that periods with abundant resources led to higher growth and survival of godwit chicks, but also that chick survival was increasingly related to the availability of larger prey as chicks aged. At the population level, estimates of mismatches using age-structured consumer demand explained more variation in annual godwit fledging rates than more commonly used alternatives. Our study suggests that modeling the effects of mismatches as the disrupted interaction between dynamic consumer needs and resource availability clarifies when mismatches matter to both individuals and populations.
气候变化导致季节性生物事件发生转移，导致消费者-资源对的时间解耦，即物候不匹配。尽管不匹配通常会影响个体的适应性，但它们并不会必然扩大到影响种群，从而难以评估它们所带来的风险。个体变异可能导致这种不一致，因为资源的可用性和消费者需求的变化导致不匹配随着时间的推移产生不同的结果。然而，大多数模型都是从单一时间点估计消费者的匹配情况，这可能会掩盖不匹配对种群的重要性。我们通过研究 2009 年至 2019 年的早成性哈德逊湾滨鸟（Limosa haemastica）雏鸟及其无脊椎猎物，分析了不匹配随时间的变化如何产生影响。我们开发了个体和种群水平的模型，以确定特定年龄的变化如何影响滨鸟与资源可用性之间的关系。我们发现，资源丰富的时期导致滨鸟雏鸟的生长和存活率更高，但随着雏鸟年龄的增长，雏鸟的存活率与较大猎物的可用性越来越相关。在种群水平上，使用年龄结构消费者需求来估计不匹配程度，比常用的替代方法更能解释滨鸟每年离巢率的变化。我们的研究表明，将不匹配的影响建模为动态消费者需求与资源可用性之间的中断相互作用，可以更清楚地了解不匹配对个体和种群的重要性。
