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气候变化对斑点热媒介 和 的地理分布潜力的影响。

Climate change influences on the geographic distributional potential of the spotted fever vectors and .

机构信息

Biodiversity Institute, University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS, United States of America.

Zoology Department, Faculty of Science, Univeristy of Tripoli, Tripoli, Libya.

出版信息

PeerJ. 2022 May 3;10:e13279. doi: 10.7717/peerj.13279. eCollection 2022.

Abstract

(Gulf Coast tick), and (Rocky Mountain wood tick) are two North American ticks that transmit spotted fevers associated . transmits and , while transmits , , (Colorado tick fever virus), and . Increases in temperature causes mild winters and more extreme dry periods during summers, which will affect tick populations in unknown ways. Here, we used ecological niche modeling (ENM) to assess the potential geographic distributions of these two medically important vector species in North America under current condition and then transfer those models to the future under different future climate scenarios with special interest in highlighting new potential expansion areas. Current model predictions for showed suitable areas across the southern and Midwest United States, and east coast, western and southern Mexico. For , our models showed broad suitable areas across northwestern United States. New potential for range expansions was anticipated for both tick species northward in response to climate change, extending across the Midwest and New England for , and still farther north into Canada for .

摘要

(海湾滨蜱)和(落矶山木蜱)是两种分布于北美的蜱虫,它们传播斑点热。前者传播 、 、 和 ,后者传播 、 、 (科罗拉多蜱热病毒)和 。温度升高导致温和的冬季和夏季更极端的干旱期,这将以未知的方式影响蜱虫的数量。在这里,我们使用生态位模型(ENM)来评估这两种在北美的具有重要医学意义的媒介物种在当前条件下的潜在地理分布,然后将这些模型转移到未来不同的未来气候情景下,特别关注突出新的潜在扩展区域。当前对 的模型预测显示,在美国南部和中西部以及东海岸、西部和南部墨西哥都有适宜的地区。对于 ,我们的模型显示出在美国西北部广泛的适宜地区。由于气候变化,两种蜱虫的活动范围都有望向北扩展,对于 来说,范围将扩展到中西部和新英格兰,对于 来说,范围将进一步向北扩展到加拿大。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/cf97/9074859/e55a7c084975/peerj-10-13279-g001.jpg

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