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Lukas B DeFilippo, Lisa C McManus, Daniel E Schindler, Malin L Pinsky, Madhavi A Colton, Helen E Fox, E W Tekwa, Stephen R Palumbi, Timothy E Essington, Michael M Webster
School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA.
Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Natural Resources, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, New Jersey, USA.
Ecol Appl. 2022 Oct;32(7):e2650. doi: 10.1002/eap.2650. Epub 2022 Jun 27.
Interest is growing in developing conservation strategies to restore and maintain coral reef ecosystems in the face of mounting anthropogenic stressors, particularly climate warming and associated mass bleaching events. One such approach is to propagate coral colonies ex situ and transplant them to degraded reef areas to augment habitat for reef-dependent fauna, prevent colonization from spatial competitors, and enhance coral reproductive output. In addition to such "demographic restoration" efforts, manipulating the thermal tolerance of outplanted colonies through assisted relocation, selective breeding, or genetic engineering is being considered for enhancing rates of evolutionary adaptation to warming. Although research into such "assisted evolution" strategies has been growing, their expected performance remains unclear. We evaluated the potential outcomes of demographic restoration and assisted evolution in climate change scenarios using an eco-evolutionary simulation model. We found that supplementing reefs with pre-existing genotypes (demographic restoration) offers little climate resilience benefits unless input levels are large and maintained for centuries. Supplementation with thermally resistant colonies was successful at improving coral cover at lower input levels, but only if maintained for at least a century. Overall, we found that, although demographic restoration and assisted evolution have the potential to improve long-term coral cover, both approaches had a limited impact in preventing severe declines under climate change scenarios. Conversely, with sufficient natural genetic variance and time, corals could readily adapt to warming temperatures, suggesting that restoration approaches focused on building genetic variance may outperform those based solely on introducing heat-tolerant genotypes.
人们越来越关注制定保护策略，以恢复和维护珊瑚礁生态系统，应对日益增加的人为压力，特别是气候变暖以及与之相关的大规模白化事件。其中一种方法是在原地以外繁殖珊瑚群体，并将其移植到退化的珊瑚礁区域，以增加珊瑚礁依赖的动物的栖息地，防止来自空间竞争者的殖民化，并提高珊瑚的繁殖产量。除了这种“人口恢复”措施之外，通过辅助搬迁、选择性繁殖或基因工程来操纵种植群体的耐热性，也被认为可以提高对变暖的进化适应速度。尽管有关这种“辅助进化”策略的研究一直在增加，但它们的预期表现仍不清楚。我们使用生态进化模拟模型评估了在气候变化情景下人口恢复和辅助进化的潜在结果。我们发现，除非输入水平很大并且持续几个世纪，否则用现有基因型补充珊瑚礁（人口恢复）几乎没有气候弹性益处。补充耐热的群体在较低的输入水平上成功地提高了珊瑚覆盖率，但前提是至少要维持一个世纪。总的来说，我们发现，尽管人口恢复和辅助进化有可能提高珊瑚的长期覆盖率，但这两种方法在防止气候变化情景下的严重下降方面的影响都很有限。相反，如果有足够的自然遗传变异和时间，珊瑚可以很容易地适应变暖的温度，这表明以建立遗传变异为重点的恢复方法可能比仅基于引入耐热基因型的方法表现更好。
