津巴布韦年最高月降雨量的统计建模。

Statistical modeling of annual highest monthly rainfall in Zimbabwe.

机构信息

Department of Statistics, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe.

Department of Mathematics, University of Manchester, Manchester, M13 9PL, UK.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2022 May 11;12(1):7698. doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-11839-9.

DOI:10.1038/s41598-022-11839-9

PMID:35546167

原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9095643/

Abstract

The first statistical analysis of maximum rainfall in Zimbabwe is provided. The data are from 103 stations spread across the different climatic regions of Zimbabwe. More than 90% of the stations had at least 50 years of data. The generalized extreme value distribution was fitted to maximum rainfall by the method of maximum likelihood. Probability plots, quantile plots and Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests showed that the generalized extreme value distribution provided an adequate fit for all stations. The vast majority of stations do not exhibit significant trends in rainfall. Twelve of the stations exhibit negative trends and three of the stations exhibit positive trends in rainfall. Estimates of return levels are given for 2, 5, 10, 20, 50 and 100 years.

摘要

为津巴布韦的最大降雨量提供了首次统计分析。数据来自津巴布韦不同气候区的 103 个站点。超过 90%的站点至少有 50 年的数据。广义极值分布通过最大似然法拟合最大降雨量。概率图、分位数图和柯尔莫哥洛夫-斯米尔诺夫检验表明，广义极值分布为所有站点提供了足够的拟合。绝大多数站点的降雨量没有明显的趋势。有 12 个站点的降雨量呈负趋势，有 3 个站点的降雨量呈正趋势。给出了 2、5、10、20、50 和 100 年重现期的估计值。