Nadarajah Saralees, Kwofie Charles
Department of Mathematics, University of Manchester, Manchester M13 9PL, UK.
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Energy and Natural Resources, Ghana.
Heliyon. 2024 Jul 8;10(14):e34076. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e34076. eCollection 2024 Jul 30.
The Akosombo Dam is the largest dam in Ghana and is linked to the world's largest man-made lake by surface area. The top of flood control pool of the dam has been breached a number of times, so it is of interest to know the corresponding probability. The paper fits the generalized extreme value distribution to the extreme water levels - with all three of its parameters (including the shape parameter) accounting for various linear trends, seasonality and cyclic trends with respect to time, . The fitted model contains in total 50 parameters. It provided an adequate fit, as evaluated by probability plots, quantile plots, and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. It is used to provide return level estimates as well as probabilities of the top of flood control pool of the dam being breached.
阿科松博大坝是加纳最大的水坝，按表面积计算，它与世界上最大的人工湖相连。该大坝防洪库容顶部多次被突破，因此了解相应的概率很有意义。本文将广义极值分布拟合到极端水位——其所有三个参数（包括形状参数）都考虑了相对于时间的各种线性趋势、季节性和周期性趋势。拟合模型总共包含50个参数。通过概率图、分位数图和柯尔莫哥洛夫-斯米尔诺夫检验评估，该模型拟合效果良好。它用于提供重现期估计以及大坝防洪库容顶部被突破的概率。
