Complexity Science Hub Vienna, Josefstädter Strasse 39, 1080, Vienna, Austria.
Institute for Finance, Banking and Insurance, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Welthandelsplatz 1, 1020, Vienna, Austria.
Sci Rep. 2022 May 11;12(1):7719. doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-11522-z.
Crises like COVID-19 exposed the fragility of highly interdependent corporate supply networks and the complex production processes depending on them. However, a quantitative assessment of individual companies' impact on the networks' overall production is hitherto non-existent. Based on a unique value added tax dataset, we construct the firm-level production network of an entire country at an unprecedented granularity and present a novel approach for computing the economic systemic risk (ESR) of all firms within the network. We demonstrate that 0.035% of companies have extraordinarily high ESR, impacting about 23% of the national economic production should any of them default. Firm size cannot explain the ESR of individual companies; their position in the production networks matters substantially. A reliable assessment of ESR seems impossible with aggregated data traditionally used in Input-Output Economics. Our findings indicate that ESR of some extremely risky companies can be reduced by introducing supply chain redundancies and changes in the network topology.
新冠疫情等危机暴露了高度相互依存的企业供应链网络的脆弱性，以及依赖这些网络的复杂生产流程。然而，迄今为止，对于个别公司对网络整体生产的影响，还没有进行定量评估。基于独特的增值税数据集，我们以空前的粒度构建了整个国家的企业层面生产网络，并提出了一种计算网络中所有企业经济系统风险（ESR）的新方法。我们发现，0.035%的公司具有极高的 ESR，如果其中任何一家公司违约，将影响约 23%的国民经济生产。公司规模不能解释个别公司的 ESR；它们在生产网络中的地位至关重要。传统的投入产出经济学中使用的汇总数据，似乎无法对 ESR 进行可靠评估。我们的研究结果表明，通过引入供应链冗余和网络拓扑结构的变化，可以降低一些风险极高的公司的 ESR。
