Chakraborty Abhijit, Reisch Tobias, Diem Christian, Astudillo-Estévez Pablo, Thurner Stefan
Complexity Science Hub Vienna, Vienna, Austria.
Section for Science of Complex Systems, CeMSIIS, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria.
Nat Commun. 2024 Apr 18;15(1):3348. doi: 10.1038/s41467-024-46126-w.
For centuries, national economies have been engaging in international trade and production. The resulting international supply networks not only increase wealth for countries, but also allow for economic shocks to propagate across borders. Using global, firm-level supply network data, we estimate a country's exposure to direct and indirect economic losses caused by the failure of a company in another country. We show the network of international systemic risk-flows. We find that rich countries expose poor countries stronger to systemic risk than vice-versa. The risk is highly concentrated, however, higher risk levels are not compensated with a risk premium in GDP levels, nor higher GDP growth. Our findings put the often praised benefits for developing countries from globalized production in a new light, by relating them to risks involved in the production processes. Exposure risks present a new dimension of global inequality that most affects the poor in supply shock crises.
几个世纪以来,各国经济一直参与国际贸易和生产。由此产生的国际供应网络不仅增加了各国的财富,也使得经济冲击能够跨境传播。利用全球企业层面的供应网络数据,我们估算了一个国家因另一个国家的公司倒闭而面临的直接和间接经济损失风险敞口。我们展示了国际系统性风险流动网络。我们发现,富国使穷国面临的系统性风险比穷国使富国面临的系统性风险更大。然而,风险高度集中,较高的风险水平并未在国内生产总值水平上得到风险溢价的补偿,也未带来更高的国内生产总值增长。我们的研究结果通过将发展中国家从全球化生产中获得的好处与生产过程中涉及的风险联系起来,为其带来了新的认识。风险敞口呈现出全球不平等的一个新层面,在供应冲击危机中对穷人影响最大。