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利用过度统计显著性的力量:加权和迭代最小二乘法。

Harnessing the power of excess statistical significance: Weighted and iterative least squares.

机构信息

Deakin Laboratory for the Meta-Analysis of Research (DeLMAR), School of Business and Law, Deakin University.

Department of Economics, Deakin University.

出版信息

Psychol Methods. 2024 Apr;29(2):407-420. doi: 10.1037/met0000502. Epub 2022 May 12.

Abstract

We introduce a new meta-analysis estimator, the weighted and iterated least squares (WILS), that greatly reduces publication selection bias (PSB) when selective reporting for statistical significance (SSS) is present. WILS is the simple weighted average that has smaller bias and rates of false positives than conventional meta-analysis estimators, the unrestricted weighted least squares (UWLS), and the weighted average of the adequately powered (WAAP) when there is SSS. As a simple weighted average, it is not vulnerable to violations in publication bias corrections models' assumptions too often seen in application. WILS is based on the novel idea of allowing excess statistical significance (ESS), which is a necessary condition of SSS, to identify when and how to reduce PSB. We show in comparisons with large-scale preregistered replications and in evidence-based simulations that the remaining bias is small. The routine application of WILS in the place of random effects would do much to reduce conventional meta-analysis's notable biases and high rates of false positives. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

摘要

我们引入了一种新的元分析估计器,加权迭代最小二乘法(WILS),当存在统计显著性选择性报告(SSS)时,它可以大大减少发表偏倚(PSB)。WILS 是一种简单的加权平均值,与存在 SSS 时无约束加权最小二乘法(UWLS)和充分功率加权平均值(WAAP)相比,具有更小的偏差和假阳性率。作为一种简单的加权平均值,它不易受到应用中经常出现的发表偏倚校正模型假设违反的影响。WILS 基于允许过度统计显著性(ESS)的新颖想法,ESS 是 SSS 的必要条件,可用于确定何时以及如何减少 PSB。我们通过与大规模预注册的复制和基于证据的模拟进行比较表明,剩余的偏差很小。在常规应用中,用 WILS 代替随机效应将大大减少传统元分析的显著偏差和高假阳性率。(PsycInfo 数据库记录(c)2024 APA,保留所有权利)。

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