The Biosecurity Program, The Kirby Institute, University of New South Wales, Kensington, NSW, Australia.
College of Health Solutions, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, United States.
Front Public Health. 2021 Apr 21;9:625499. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2021.625499. eCollection 2021.
To estimate the impact of universal community face mask use in Victoria, Australia along with other routine disease control measures in place. A mathematical modeling study using an age structured deterministic model for Victoria, was simulated for 123 days between 1 June 2020 and 1 October 2020, incorporating lockdown, contact tracing, and case findings with and without mask use in varied scenarios. The model tested the impact of differing scenarios of the universal use of face masks in Victoria, by timing, varying mask effectiveness, and uptake. A six-week lockdown with standard control measures, but no masks, would have resulted in a large resurgence by September, following the lifting of restrictions. Mask use can substantially reduce the epidemic size, with a greater impact if at least 50% of people wear a mask which has an effectiveness of at least 40%. Early mask use averts more cases than mask usage that is only implemented closer to the peak. No mask use, with a 6-week lockdown, results in 67,636 cases and 120 deaths by 1 October 2020 if no further lockdowns are used. If mask use at 70% uptake commences on 23 July 2020, this is reduced to 7,961 cases and 42 deaths. We estimated community mask effectiveness to be 11%. Lockdown and standard control measures may not have controlled the epidemic in Victoria. Mask use can substantially improve epidemic control if its uptake is higher than 50% and if moderately effective masks are used. Early mask use should be considered in other states if community transmission is present, as this has a greater effect than later mask wearing mandates.
为了估计澳大利亚维多利亚州普遍使用社区口罩以及其他常规疾病控制措施的影响。使用针对维多利亚州的年龄结构确定性模型进行了一项数学建模研究，该模型在 2020 年 6 月 1 日至 10 月 1 日之间模拟了 123 天，结合了封锁、接触者追踪和发现病例，并在不同场景下使用和不使用口罩进行了模拟。该模型通过时间、变化的口罩效果和采用率测试了维多利亚州普遍使用口罩的不同场景的影响。在没有口罩的情况下，六周的封锁和标准控制措施将导致限制解除后，9 月份疫情大规模反弹。口罩的使用可以大大减少疫情规模，如果至少有 50%的人佩戴口罩，并且口罩的有效性至少为 40%，则影响更大。早期使用口罩比接近高峰期才使用口罩可以避免更多的病例。如果没有进一步的封锁，在没有口罩的情况下，六周的封锁将导致 2020 年 10 月 1 日有 67636 例病例和 120 例死亡。如果在 2020 年 7 月 23 日开始采用 70%的口罩使用率，那么这一数字将降至 7961 例和 42 例死亡。我们估计社区口罩的有效性为 11%。封锁和标准控制措施可能无法控制维多利亚州的疫情。如果采用率高于 50%，并且使用中等有效的口罩，口罩的使用可以大大改善疫情控制。如果存在社区传播，其他州应考虑早期使用口罩，因为这比后期佩戴口罩的命令效果更大。
