Zeng Bo, Yang Shuangyi, Mao Cuiwei, Zhang Dehai
School of Management Science and Engineering Chongqing Technology and Business University Chongqing China.
College of Wealth Management Chongqing Finance and Economics College Chongqing China.
Energy Sci Eng. 2022 Aug;10(8):2741-2755. doi: 10.1002/ese3.1164. Epub 2022 Apr 28.
In this paper, a grey prediction model group is employed to quantitatively study the impact of COVID-19 on natural gas consumption in Chongqing, China. First, a grey prediction model group suitable for the prediction of Chongqing's natural gas consumption is introduced, which consists of GM(1,1), TWGM(1,1), and the newly-developed ODGM(1,1). Then, the model group is constructed to predict Chongqing's natural gas consumption in 2020. Finally, compare the predicted results of the model group with the actual consumption and quantitatively analyze the impact of the epidemic on natural gas in Chongqing. It is found that the impact of the epidemic on the consumption of natural gas in the first quarter of the year is very small, but relatively bigger in the second and third quarters. The study is of positive significance to maintain the supply and demand balance of natural gas consumption in Chongqing in the background of COVID-19; and it enriches and develops the theoretical system of grey prediction models.
本文采用灰色预测模型组对新冠疫情对中国重庆天然气消费的影响进行定量研究。首先，介绍了适用于重庆天然气消费预测的灰色预测模型组，其由GM(1,1)、TWGM(1,1)以及新开发的ODGM(1,1)组成。然后，构建该模型组来预测2020年重庆的天然气消费量。最后，将模型组的预测结果与实际消费量进行比较，并定量分析疫情对重庆天然气的影响。研究发现，疫情对当年第一季度天然气消费的影响非常小，但在第二和第三季度相对较大。该研究对于在新冠疫情背景下维持重庆天然气消费的供需平衡具有积极意义；并且丰富和发展了灰色预测模型的理论体系。
