School of Economics and Management, 47912Chongqing Jiaotong University, Chongqing, China.
School of Management Science and Engineering, 66530Chongqing Technology and Business University, Chongqing, China.
Sci Prog. 2023 Jan-Mar;106(1):368504231157707. doi: 10.1177/00368504231157707.
As a low-carbon and cost-effective clean energy source, natural gas plays an important role in achieving China's "Dual Carbon" target. In this article, a new three-parameter discrete grey prediction model is used to simulate and forecast the production and consumption of natural gas in China from the perspective of background value optimization. Then the minimum mean absolute percentage error as the objective function from the perspective of fractional order cumulative generation in the real number field. Last, a fractional order in the real number field three parameter discrete grey prediction model TDGM(1,1,z,r) is constructed under the condition of optimal background value. Then we use the model to simulate and predict China's Natural Gas External Dependence (NGED) under the "Dual Carbon" target. The results show that the performance of the new model is better than that of the traditional model GM(1,1) and DGM(1,1), thus proving the practicability and effectiveness of the new model. Put forward relevant policy suggestions according to the prediction results of China's NGED, and provide decision-making reference for the Chinese government to achieve the "Dual Carbon" goals.
作为一种低碳、经济的清洁能源，天然气在实现中国“双碳”目标中发挥着重要作用。本文从背景值优化的角度，利用一种新的三参数离散灰色预测模型，对中国天然气的产量和消费量进行模拟和预测。然后，从实数域分数阶累加生成的角度，以最小平均绝对百分比误差为目标函数。最后，在最优背景值条件下，构建了实数域三参数离散灰色预测模型 TDGM(1,1,z,r)。然后，我们利用该模型对中国在“双碳”目标下的天然气对外依存度（NGED）进行模拟和预测。结果表明，新模型的性能优于传统模型 GM(1,1)和 DGM(1,1)，从而证明了新模型的实用性和有效性。根据中国 NGED 的预测结果，提出了相关政策建议，为中国政府实现“双碳”目标提供决策参考。
