cE3c - Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Changes, Faculty of Sciences of Lisbon University, Lisboa, Portugal.
Departamento de Ecologia, Universidade Federal de Goiás, Goiana, Brasil.
PeerJ. 2022 May 10;10:e13269. doi: 10.7717/peerj.13269. eCollection 2022.
The accuracy of predictions of invasive species ranges is dependent on niche similarity between invasive and native populations and on our ability to identify the niche characteristics. With this work we aimed to compare the niche dynamics of two genetically related invasive populations of (an effective predator of honeybees and wild pollinators), in two distinct climatic regions, one in central Europe and another one in the north-western Iberian Peninsula, and hence to identify uninvaded regions susceptible to invasion.
Niche dynamics and shifts of were assessed by comparing the environmental niches of the native and of the two invasive populations, using climatic, topographic and land use variables. We also ran reciprocal distribution models using different algorithms and records from both native and invasive ranges to compare model predictions and estimate which regions are at a greater risk of being invaded.
An apparent niche shift was detected in the population of the NW of Iberian Peninsula, where the species is living under environmental conditions different from the native niche. In central Europe, large suitable areas remain unoccupied. The fact that both invasive populations are well established, despite occupying environmentally distinct regions indicates that has a high ability to successfully invade different environmental envelopes from those existing in its native range. For example, in north-western Iberian Peninsula the species is now thriving out of its native niche limits. Moreover, the large extent of still unoccupied environmental space with similar conditions to those used by the species in its native range suggests that there is still a large area of central and eastern Europe that can be potentially invaded by the species.
入侵物种分布范围的预测准确性取决于入侵种群和本地种群之间的生态位相似性，以及我们识别生态位特征的能力。本研究旨在比较两种遗传上相关的入侵种群在两个不同气候区的生态位动态，一个在中欧，另一个在伊比利亚半岛西北部，从而确定未受入侵的易受入侵地区。
通过比较气候、地形和土地利用变量，评估了本地和两个入侵种群的生态位动态和转移。我们还使用不同的算法和来自本地和入侵范围的记录运行了互易分布模型，以比较模型预测并估计哪些地区面临更大的入侵风险。
在伊比利亚半岛西北部的种群中检测到明显的生态位转移，该物种生活在与本地生态位不同的环境条件下。在中欧，仍有大片适宜的土地未被占据。两个入侵种群都已很好地建立起来，尽管它们所处的环境不同，这表明 具有成功入侵其本地范围以外不同环境范围的高能力。例如，在伊比利亚半岛西北部，该物种现在在其本地生态位范围之外茁壮成长。此外，仍有大片环境空间尚未被占据，其条件与该物种在本地范围内使用的条件相似，这表明仍有大片中欧和东欧地区可能受到该物种的潜在入侵。
