School of Medicine, University College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland.
Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, The Mater Misericordiae University Hospital, Dublin, Ireland.
Arch Osteoporos. 2022 May 16;17(1):79. doi: 10.1007/s11657-022-01112-x.
A national, population-based study of hip fracture epidemiology is reported following a previously published study for the same population to ascertain the accuracy of projected incidence rates. Results suggest a decline in age-specific incidence rates in females but not males, and an over-estimation of same in the previously reported projections.
Accurate estimates of hip fracture numbers and incidence rates are necessary for health service resource planning. A study in 2009 estimated projected figures for 2016 and 2026, for the Republic of Ireland. The purpose of the current study was to scrutinize these projections, based upon actual population and fracture statistics for the year 2016.
Population data was obtained from the Central Statistics Office, and hip fracture data was obtained from the National HIPE Database for the year 2016, using similar search criteria to the previously published study. Hip fracture numbers and incidence rates were calculated. The calculated figures were compared to projected figures from the previous report.
Population projection models used in the 2009 paper accurately reflected the 2016 Irish population. For younger age groups, projected number of fractures closely estimated actual numbers, however, for those over 70 years of age, hip fracture projections overestimated the actual fracture numbers observed. There was a significant difference in the age-specific hip fracture rates in the over 70 s sub-groups compared to the published results of the 2009 study.
Hip fracture numbers continue to increase, though the age-specific incidence rates in the Republic of Ireland are reducing in the older age groups. The previously published study over-estimated hip fracture projections for the year 2016 (and potentially 2026) due to a false assumption of a stable age-specific incidence rate in the Republic of Ireland, which is in fact reducing.
本研究报告报道了一项针对爱尔兰全国范围内髋部骨折流行病学的基于人群的研究，该研究旨在验证先前为同一人群进行的预测发病率的准确性。结果表明，女性的年龄特异性发病率呈下降趋势，但男性则不然，而且先前报告的预测结果存在高估。
准确估计髋部骨折的数量和发病率对于医疗服务资源规划至关重要。2009 年的一项研究对爱尔兰共和国 2016 年和 2026 年的预测数据进行了估计。本研究的目的是根据 2016 年的实际人口和骨折统计数据，仔细审查这些预测数据。
使用与先前研究相似的搜索标准，从中央统计局获取人口数据，从国家 HIPE 数据库获取 2016 年的髋部骨折数据。计算髋部骨折的数量和发病率。将计算得出的数字与之前报告中的预测数字进行比较。
2009 年论文中使用的人口预测模型准确反映了 2016 年的爱尔兰人口。对于年龄较小的人群，预测的骨折数量与实际数量非常接近，但对于 70 岁以上的人群，髋部骨折的预测值高估了实际观察到的骨折数量。与 2009 年研究的结果相比，70 岁以上亚组的年龄特异性髋部骨折率存在显著差异。
尽管爱尔兰共和国年龄较大的人群的年龄特异性发病率正在下降，但髋部骨折的数量仍在增加。由于假设爱尔兰共和国的年龄特异性发病率保持稳定，先前发表的研究高估了 2016 年（可能还有 2026 年）的髋部骨折预测值，而实际上这一发病率正在下降。
