Turkington Paul, Mcdonald Sinead, Elliott James, Beringer Timothy
Department of Healthcare of the Elderly, Royal Victoria Hospital, Belfast BT12 6BA.
Ulster Med J. 2012 Sep;81(3):123-6.
The aims of this study were to review and update previous projections of the number of proximal femoral fractures in the Northern Ireland population and to ascertain if the trend of increasing age-specific fracture incidence was continuing.
Data from 1985 to 1997 was obtained from hospital theatre records to ascertain the number of surgical procedures for proximal femoral fracture. Data for the years 2005 and 2010 was obtained from Northern Ireland's Fracture Outcomes Research Database (FORD) and locally held records in one region not then using FORD. Demographic details were obtained from data published by the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency. Age-specific fracture rates were calculated for males and females in 5 year age brackets and for populations aged 50+ and 65+. Updated projections for the number of proximal femoral fractures by 2020 were made assuming the continuation of the same age-specific fracture rates observed in 2010.
From 1997 to 2010 the age-specific fracture incidence has fallen or plateaued across most observed age and sex subgroups. Over the period 2010 to 2020, male and female fracture numbers are projected to increase by 23% and 21% respectively which equates to approximately 400 extra proximal femoral fractures.
Over the next decade there will be an increasing burden on Northern Irish healthcare resources attributed to a rise in the number of proximal femoral fractures. The age-specific fracture rates in this population are no longer rising and hence the expected increase in healthcare costs is primarily a consequence of the anticipated changing demographic trends.
本研究的目的是回顾和更新之前对北爱尔兰人群股骨近端骨折数量的预测，并确定特定年龄骨折发病率上升的趋势是否仍在持续。
从医院手术记录中获取1985年至1997年的数据，以确定股骨近端骨折的外科手术数量。2005年和2010年的数据来自北爱尔兰骨折结局研究数据库（FORD）以及当时一个未使用FORD的地区的本地记录。人口统计细节来自北爱尔兰统计与研究局公布的数据。计算了5岁年龄组以及50岁以上和65岁以上人群中男性和女性的特定年龄骨折率。假设2010年观察到的相同特定年龄骨折率持续存在，对到2020年的股骨近端骨折数量进行了更新预测。
从1997年到2010年，在大多数观察到的年龄和性别亚组中，特定年龄骨折发病率下降或趋于平稳。在2010年至2020年期间，预计男性和女性骨折数量将分别增加23%和21%，这相当于股骨近端骨折数量额外增加约400例。
在接下来的十年中，由于股骨近端骨折数量的增加，北爱尔兰医疗资源的负担将日益加重。该人群的特定年龄骨折率不再上升，因此预计医疗费用的增加主要是预期人口结构变化趋势的结果。
