估算 COVID-19 大流行期间伊朗的 Alpha 和 Delta 变异株的基本繁殖数。
Estimation of the basic reproduction number of Alpha and Delta variants of COVID-19 pandemic in Iran.
机构信息
Faculty of Computer Engineering, K. N. Toosi University of Technology, Tehran, Iran.
出版信息
PLoS One. 2022 May 17;17(5):e0265489. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0265489. eCollection 2022.
Estimating the basic reproduction number of a pandemic and the changes that appear on this value over time provide a good understanding of the contagious nature of the virus and efficiency of the controlling strategies. In this paper, we focus on studying the basic reproduction number (R0) for two important variants of COVID-19 pandemic in Iran: Alpha and Delta variants. We use four different methods, three statistical models and one mathematical model, to compute R0: Exponential Growth Rate (EGR), Maximum Likelihood (ML), Sequential Bayesian (SB), and time-dependent SIR model. Alpha variant of COVID-19 was active in Iran from March 10, 2021 until June 10, 2021. Our computations indicate that total R0 of this variant according to EGR, ML, SB, and SIR model is respectively 0.9999 (95% CI: 0.9994-1), 1.046 (95% CI: 1.044-1.049), 1.06 (95% CI: 1.03-1.08), and 2.79 (95% CI: 2.77-2.81) in the whole active time interval. Moreover, during the time interval from April 3, 2021 to April 9, 2021 in which this variant was in its exponential growth in Iran, R0 of Alpha variant in Iran according to SB, EGR, ML, and SIR model is respectively 2.26 (95% CI: 2.04-2.49), 2.64 (95% CI: 2.58-2.7), 11.38 (95% CI: 11.28-11.48), and 12.13 (95% CI: 12.12-12.14). Delta variant was active in Iran during the time interval from June 22, 2021 until September 22, 2021. Our computations show that during the time interval from July 3, 2021 to July 8, 2021 in which this variant was in its exponential growth in Iran, R0 of Delta variant in Iran according to SB, EGR, ML, and SIR model is respectively 3 (95% CI: 2.34-3.66), 3.1 (95% CI: 3.02-3.17), 12 (95% CI: 11.89-12.12), and 23.3 (95% CI: 23.19-23.41). Further, total R0 of Delta variant in Iran in the whole active time interval according to EGR, ML, SB, and SIR model is respectively 1.042 (95% CI: 1.04-1.043), 1.053 (95% CI: 1.051-1.055), 0.79 (95% CI: 0.63-0.95), and 5.65 (95% CI: 5.6-5.7). As the results show Delta variant was more severe than Alpha variant in Iran. Chasing the changes in R0 during each variant shows that the controlling strategies applied were effective in controlling the virus spread.
估算大流行的基本繁殖数 (R0) 及其随时间的变化可以很好地了解病毒的传染性和控制策略的效率。在本文中，我们专注于研究伊朗两种重要的 COVID-19 大流行变体的基本繁殖数 (R0)：Alpha 和 Delta 变体。我们使用四种不同的方法，三种统计模型和一种数学模型，来计算 R0：指数增长率 (EGR)、最大似然法 (ML)、序贯贝叶斯法 (SB) 和时变 SIR 模型。Alpha 变体的 COVID-19 于 2021 年 3 月 10 日至 2021 年 6 月 10 日在伊朗活跃。我们的计算表明，根据 EGR、ML、SB 和 SIR 模型，该变体的总 R0 分别为 0.9999（95%CI：0.9994-1）、1.046（95%CI：1.044-1.049）、1.06（95%CI：1.03-1.08）和 2.79（95%CI：2.77-2.81）在整个活跃时间间隔内。此外，在 2021 年 4 月 3 日至 2021 年 4 月 9 日期间，当该变体在伊朗呈指数增长时，根据 SB、EGR、ML 和 SIR 模型，伊朗的 Alpha 变体的 R0 分别为 2.26（95%CI：2.04-2.49）、2.64（95%CI：2.58-2.7）、11.38（95%CI：11.28-11.48）和 12.13（95%CI：12.12-12.14）。Delta 变体于 2021 年 6 月 22 日至 2021 年 9 月 22 日在伊朗活跃。我们的计算表明，在 2021 年 7 月 3 日至 2021 年 7 月 8 日期间，当该变体在伊朗呈指数增长时，根据 SB、EGR、ML 和 SIR 模型，Delta 变体在伊朗的 R0 分别为 3（95%CI：2.34-3.66）、3.1（95%CI：3.02-3.17）、12（95%CI：11.89-12.12）和 23.3（95%CI：23.19-23.41）。此外，根据 EGR、ML、SB 和 SIR 模型，伊朗 Delta 变体在整个活跃时间间隔内的总 R0 分别为 1.042（95%CI：1.04-1.043）、1.053（95%CI：1.051-1.055）、0.79（95%CI：0.63-0.95）和 5.65（95%CI：5.6-5.7）。结果表明，Delta 变体在伊朗比 Alpha 变体更为严重。追踪每个变体的 R0 变化表明，应用的控制策略在控制病毒传播方面是有效的。
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