Zha Qunwu, Chai Guorong, Zhang Zhe-George, Sha Yongzhong, Su Yana, Wu Tingting
School of Management, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, People's Republic of China.
Hospital Management Research Center, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, People's Republic of China.
Int J Biometeorol. 2022 Jun;66(6):1233-1245. doi: 10.1007/s00484-022-02271-9. Epub 2022 May 18.
No studies focused on impact of temperature changes between neighboring days (TCN) on cardiovascular disease (CVD) hospital admissions among suburban farmers although CVD has been the main cause to global mortality and disability especially in undeveloped and developing countries/areas.
Daily data of CVD hospital admissions on suburban farmers and daily data of meteorology in Qingyang (China) were collected during 2011-2015. A distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was applied to explore the exposure-response relations and lagged effects between TCN and CVD hospital admissions with stratified analyses by age and gender. Extreme low TCN effects and burden analysis were conducted.
Based on 25,984 cases in Qingyang (China) during 2011-2015 among suburban farmers, we found that, first, nonlinear relationship was observed between TCN and CVD hospital admissions and adverse impact in negative TCN (temperature dropping between neighboring days) while protective effect in positive TCN (temperature rising between neighboring days) were discovered; third, during lag0-27, the cumulative relative risk (RR) for extreme low TCN (5th percentile, - 3.5 °C) and extreme high TCN (95th percentile, 3 °C) was 29.55 (95% CI 4.709-185.436) and 0.040 (95% CI 0.009-0.169), respectively; fourth, the age < 65 and females were more vulnerable to negative TCN than the age ≥ 65 and males among suburban farmers, respectively; last, moderate low TCN contributed the most fractions and numbers on CVD hospital admissions.
Among Qingyang suburban farmers in Northwest China, negative TCN should be paid more attention.
尽管心血管疾病一直是全球死亡和残疾的主要原因，尤其是在不发达和发展中国家/地区，但尚无研究关注相邻日温度变化（TCN）对郊区农民心血管疾病（CVD）住院率的影响。
收集了2011 - 2015年中国庆阳郊区农民CVD住院的每日数据和气象每日数据。应用分布滞后非线性模型（DLNM）探讨TCN与CVD住院率之间的暴露 - 反应关系和滞后效应，并按年龄和性别进行分层分析。进行了极端低TCN效应和负担分析。
基于2011 - 2015年中国庆阳郊区农民的25984例病例，我们发现，首先，TCN与CVD住院率之间存在非线性关系，负TCN（相邻日温度下降）有不良影响，而正TCN（相邻日温度上升）有保护作用；第三，在滞后0 - 27天期间，极端低TCN（第5百分位数，-3.5°C）和极端高TCN（第95百分位数，3°C）的累积相对风险（RR）分别为29.55（95%CI 4.709 - 185.436）和0.040（95%CI 0.009 - 0.169）；第四，在郊区农民中，年龄<65岁的人群和女性比年龄≥65岁的人群和男性分别更容易受到负TCN的影响；最后，中度低TCN对CVD住院率的贡献比例和病例数最多。
在中国西北的庆阳郊区农民中，应更多关注负TCN。
