Recchia Martino, Serra Giulio
Medistat, Unità di Epidemiologia Clinica e Biostatistica, Milano; Mario Negri Institute Alumni Association (MNIAA), Milano.
Dipartimento di Medicina e Chirurgia, Università di Milano-Bicocca, Monza.
Recenti Prog Med. 2022 May;113(5):317-323. doi: 10.1701/3803.37893.
We believe that a high percentage of covid-19 infections could be due to the presence of false negative (FN) individuals on rapid swabs. To support this hypothesis and quantify their number, we performed simulations using Bayes' rule and various assumptions about the sensitivity, specificity of swabs and prevalence of infection. Imagining FNs in liberty, we then calculated the probability of encountering them in groups of people with a typical number of habitual sites, such as: bus, supermarket, theatre, etc. The probability of encountering FN from rapid tests was more than 3 times higher (345% change) that reported by the RT-PCR test.
我们认为，新冠病毒19感染的高比例可能是由于快速拭子检测中存在假阴性（FN）个体。为了支持这一假设并量化其数量，我们使用贝叶斯法则以及关于拭子的敏感性、特异性和感染患病率的各种假设进行了模拟。想象假阴性个体处于自由状态，然后我们计算了在具有典型习惯场所数量的人群中遇到他们的概率，例如：公交车、超市、剧院等。快速检测中遇到假阴性的概率比逆转录聚合酶链反应（RT-PCR）检测报告的概率高出3倍多（变化345%）。
