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巴西皮奥伊州 2007-2019 年内脏利什曼病:流行病学和操作指标的生态时间序列分析和空间分布。

Visceral leishmaniasis in Piauí, Brazil, 2007-2019: an ecological time series analysis and spatial distribution of epidemiological and operational indicators.

机构信息

Universidade Federal do Piauí, Centro de Ciências da Saúde, Teresina, PI, Brasil.

Universidade Estadual do Piauí, Centro de Ciências da Saúde, Teresina, PI, Brasil.

出版信息

Epidemiol Serv Saude. 2022 Apr 27;31(1):e2021339. doi: 10.1590/S1679-49742022000100013. eCollection 2022.

DOI:10.1590/S1679-49742022000100013
PMID:35588511
Abstract

OBJECTIVE

To analyze epidemiological and operational indicators, the temporal trend and spatial distribution of visceral leishmaniasis (VL), as well as VL-HIV co-infection in the state of Piauí, Brazil, from 2007 to 2019.

METHODS

This was an ecological time series study. Prais-Winsten regression was used to analyze the trend of VL incidence, case fatality ratio and operational indicators.

RESULTS

Mean VL incidence in the state was 6.03/100,000 inhabitants, with a rising trend in the 40-59 age group [annual percent change (APC) = 3.88; 95%CI 0.49;7.40] and in the regions located in the south of the state: Tabuleiros do Alto Parnaíba (APC = 14.19; 95%CI 3.91;25.50) and Chapada das Mangabeiras (APC = 12.15; 95%CI 6.69;24.96). Mean case fatality ratio was 6.02% and it remained stable. The mean rate of progression to cure was 52.58%, with a falling trend (APC = -5.67; 95%CI -8.05; -3.23).

CONCLUSION

There was rising trend in VL incidence and a falling trend in its cure rate.

摘要

目的

分析巴西皮奥伊州 2007 年至 2019 年内脏利什曼病(VL)的流行病学和操作指标、时间趋势和空间分布,以及 VL-HIV 合并感染情况。

方法

这是一项生态时间序列研究。采用普赖斯-温斯坦回归分析 VL 发病率、病死率和操作指标的趋势。

结果

该州 VL 发病率的平均值为 6.03/100,000 居民,40-59 岁年龄组呈上升趋势[年变化率(APC)=3.88;95%可信区间(95%CI)0.49;7.40],位于该州南部的塔布卢罗斯-阿尔托-帕纳伊巴(Tabuleiros do Alto Parnaíba)和查帕达-达斯-曼加贝iras(Chapada das Mangabeiras)地区的发病率也呈上升趋势(APC=14.19;95%CI 3.91;25.50)和 APC=12.15;95%CI 6.69;24.96)。平均病死率为 6.02%,保持稳定。进展到治愈的平均比例为 52.58%,呈下降趋势(APC=-5.67;95%CI-8.05;-3.23)。

结论

VL 发病率呈上升趋势,治愈率呈下降趋势。

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