Hong H, Fang T, Yi B, Xu G Z
Ningbo Prefectural Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Ningbo 315010, China.
Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi. 2022 May 10;43(5):669-673. doi: 10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20220208-00100.
To evaluate effectiveness of the precise prevention and control strategies of dynamic zero COVID-19 in Ningbo, Zhejiang province. Based on the incidence data of COVID-19 and case epidemiological survey report in Ningbo in December 2021, the incidence curve of COVID-19 was generated and a dynamics model was developed to estimate the case number of under different intervention measures. The basic reproduction number () and real-time reproduction number () were calculated to evaluate intervention effect. A total of 74 cases of COVID-19 had been confirmed in Ningbo as of 17 December, 2021. The was estimated to be 4.3. With the strengthening of prevention and control measures, the showed a gradual downward trend, dropping to below 1.0 on December 11 and 0.4 on December 14. The model fitting results showed that the actual case number was close to the estimated case number (76 cases) when the effectiveness of intervention was 90%. The number of cases decreased by 98.4% compared with that if no intervention was taken. The precise prevention and control strategies of dynamic zero COVID-19 have obvious effect, which can facilitate the rapid control of COVID-19 epidemic in Ningbo.
为评估浙江省宁波市新冠肺炎疫情动态清零精准防控策略的效果。基于宁波市2021年12月新冠肺炎发病数据及病例流行病学调查报告，绘制新冠肺炎发病曲线并建立动力学模型，以估计不同干预措施下的病例数。计算基本再生数（）和实时再生数（）以评估干预效果。截至2021年12月17日，宁波市共确诊74例新冠肺炎病例。估计基本再生数为4.3。随着防控措施的加强，基本再生数呈逐渐下降趋势，12月11日降至1.0以下，12月14日降至0.4。模型拟合结果显示，当干预有效率为90%时，实际病例数接近估计病例数（76例）。与未采取干预措施相比，病例数减少了98.4%。新冠肺炎疫情动态清零精准防控策略效果显著，可助力宁波市迅速控制新冠肺炎疫情。
