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[宁波市15起新型冠状病毒肺炎聚集性疫情传播动力学研究]

[Study on transmission dynamic of 15 clusters of COVID-2019 cases in Ningbo].

作者信息

Pan X X, Chen Y, Wang A H, Wang J M, Ye L X, Gu S H, Fang T, Xu G Z

机构信息

Ningbo Prefectural Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Ningbo 315010, China.

出版信息

Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi. 2020 Dec 10;41(12):2010-2014. doi: 10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20200330-00466.

Abstract

To describe the basic characteristics of clusters of coronavirus diseases 2019 (COVID-19) cases in Ningbo, Zhejiang province, and evaluate the generation time (Tg) and basic reproduction number ((0)) of COVID-19. The basic information and onset times of the clusters of COVID-19 cases in Ningbo were investigated, the inter-generational interval of the cases were fitted by using gamma distribution, and the (0) was calculated based on the SEIR model. In the 15 clusters of COVID-19 cases, a total of 52 confirmed cases, 5 cases of nucleic acid-positive asymptomatic cases. The cases occurred from January 23 to February 4, the cases were mainly women. The incubation period was (6.11±3.38) days, and the median was 5 days. The Tg was (6.93±3.70) days. There were no significant differences in Tg between age group<60 years and age group 60 years and above, and between men and women (=0.551). According to the Tg calculated in this paper, the (0) of COVID-19 in Ningbo was 3.06 (95: 2.64- 3.51); according to the reported case transmission interval of 7.5 days in the literature, the (0) was 3.32 (95: 2.51-9.38). There is no age and gender specific differences in the Tg of clusters of COVID-19 cases in Ningbo, and COVID-19 has high infectivity and spreading power in early phase.

摘要

描述浙江省宁波市新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)病例聚集性的基本特征,并评估COVID-19的代间距(Tg)和基本再生数(R0)。调查宁波市COVID-19病例聚集性的基本信息和发病时间,采用伽马分布拟合病例的代间距,并基于SEIR模型计算R0。在15起COVID-19病例聚集性事件中,共有52例确诊病例,5例核酸阳性无症状感染者。病例发生时间为1月23日至2月4日,病例以女性为主。潜伏期为(6.11±3.38)天,中位数为5天。Tg为(6.93±3.70)天。年龄<60岁组与≥60岁组、男性与女性之间的Tg差异无统计学意义(P=0.551)。根据本文计算的Tg,宁波市COVID-19的R0为3.06(95%CI:2.64-3.51);根据文献报道病例传播间隔为7.5天计算,R0为3.32(95%CI:2.51-9.38)。宁波市COVID-19病例聚集性的Tg无年龄和性别差异,且COVID-19在早期具有较高的传染性和传播力。

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