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了解新冠疫情期间的消费者通胀预期

Understanding Consumer Inflation Expectations during the COVID-19 Pandemic.

作者信息

Detmers Gunda-Alexandra, Ho Sui-Jade, Karagedikli Özer

出版信息

Aust Econ Rev. 2022 Mar;55(1):141-154. doi: 10.1111/1467-8462.12460. Epub 2022 Mar 3.

DOI:10.1111/1467-8462.12460
PMID:35601136
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9111270/
Abstract

We study how individuals' formation of inflation expectations are affected by the stringent containment and economic support measures put in place during the COVID-19 pandemic. Using the New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) and the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT), we find that policies aimed at containing the pandemic lead to an increase in individuals' inflation expectations and inflation uncertainty. We also find some heterogeneity in the impact across different demographic groups.

摘要

我们研究了在新冠疫情期间实施的严格防控措施和经济支持措施如何影响个人通胀预期的形成。利用纽约联邦储备银行消费者预期调查（SCE）和牛津大学新冠疫情政府应对追踪器（OxCGRT），我们发现旨在控制疫情的政策会导致个人通胀预期和通胀不确定性上升。我们还发现不同人口群体在影响方面存在一些异质性。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/f52f/9111270/921553aca04f/AERE-55-141-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/f52f/9111270/5d497ee3f977/AERE-55-141-g005.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/f52f/9111270/ec52d29866af/AERE-55-141-g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/f52f/9111270/9e4d5ac07561/AERE-55-141-g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/f52f/9111270/921553aca04f/AERE-55-141-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/f52f/9111270/5d497ee3f977/AERE-55-141-g005.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/f52f/9111270/ec52d29866af/AERE-55-141-g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/f52f/9111270/9e4d5ac07561/AERE-55-141-g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/f52f/9111270/921553aca04f/AERE-55-141-g001.jpg

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本文引用的文献

1
The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on business expectations.新冠疫情对商业预期的影响。
Int J Forecast. 2022 Apr-Jun;38(2):529-544. doi: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2021.02.009. Epub 2021 Mar 5.
2
News and uncertainty about COVID-19: Survey evidence and short-run economic impact.关于新冠疫情的新闻与不确定性：调查证据及短期经济影响
J Monet Econ. 2022 Jul;129:S35-S51. doi: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2022.02.004. Epub 2022 Feb 9.
3
How economic crises affect inflation beliefs: Evidence from the Covid-19 pandemic.经济危机如何影响通胀预期：来自新冠疫情的证据。
J Econ Behav Organ. 2021 Sep;189:443-469. doi: 10.1016/j.jebo.2021.04.036. Epub 2021 Jul 24.
4
A global panel database of pandemic policies (Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker).一个全球性的大流行病政策面板数据库（牛津 COVID-19 政府应对追踪器）。
Nat Hum Behav. 2021 Apr;5(4):529-538. doi: 10.1038/s41562-021-01079-8. Epub 2021 Mar 8.