Handayani Wiwandari, Insani Tia Dianing, Fisher Micah, Gim Tae-Hyoung Tommy, Mardhotillah Santi, Adam Urban El-Fatih
Diponegoro University, Semarang, 50275, Indonesia.
East-West Center, Honolulu, United States.
Int J Disaster Risk Reduct. 2022 Jun 15;76:103015. doi: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2022.103015. Epub 2022 May 14.
With higher densities, urban agglomerations account for the fastest rates of COVID-19 transmission. In Indonesia, one of the most rapidly urbanizing regions in the world, the national government issues overall policy on the pandemic. However, implementation is often contingent on local governments. Many policies aim to stem the spread of infection by controlling people's mobility or regulating their daily activities. Urban agglomerations are a strategic site of investigation in this light, because they consist of interconnected communities governed by various levels and jurisdictions. This paper analyzes the effects of policy interventions relative to confirmed cases in the seven major urban agglomerations in Indonesia (totaling 30 municipal/district governments). Data were collected from confirmed and fatality trends from March to mid-October 2020, which were contrasted with corresponding policies for each jurisdiction. By sorting the indicators of the spread of the pandemic and its corresponding control measures, we reach conclusions about which dimensions served to curb or trigger the surge of COVID-19 clusters. The analysis unsurprisingly shows that within each agglomeration, the main cities continue to represent the highest number of confirmed cases despite variations between them. This study also highlights two key findings. First, the effectiveness of distancing measures depends considerably on the capacity of governments to implement restrictions. For example, budget limitations resulted in uneven implementation of national mandates by decentralized authority. Facilities and services at different locations also influence our understanding of disease transmission. Second, people's ability and willingness to engage with a policy regime is contingent upon personal values or economic constraints. The study shows that viewing the spatial distribution of COVID-19 at the scale of urban agglomerations helps to explain key aspects of transmission and policy, pointing to recommendations about pursuing certain protocols. Nevertheless, key challenges remain to meet the full potential of this analytical approach, due to relatively low levels of testing and inadequate data collection measures in Indonesia.
人口密度较高的城市群是新冠病毒传播速度最快的地区。印度尼西亚是世界上城市化进程最快的地区之一，该国中央政府制定了应对疫情的总体政策。然而，政策的实施往往取决于地方政府。许多政策旨在通过控制人员流动或规范日常活动来遏制感染传播。鉴于城市群由受不同层级和辖区管辖的相互关联的社区组成，因此是一个具有战略意义的调查地点。本文分析了印度尼西亚七个主要城市群（共30个市/区政府）的政策干预措施对确诊病例的影响。数据收集自2020年3月至10月中旬的确诊病例和死亡趋势，并与每个辖区的相应政策进行对比。通过梳理疫情传播指标及其相应的控制措施，我们得出了关于哪些因素有助于遏制或引发新冠病毒聚集性疫情激增的结论。分析结果不出所料地表明，在每个城市群中，尽管各主要城市之间存在差异，但确诊病例数仍然最多。本研究还突出了两个关键发现。第一，社交距离措施的有效性在很大程度上取决于政府实施限制措施的能力。例如，预算限制导致分权机构对国家指令的执行不均衡。不同地点的设施和服务也会影响我们对疾病传播的理解。第二，人们遵守政策制度的能力和意愿取决于个人价值观或经济限制。研究表明，从城市群层面观察新冠病毒的空间分布有助于解释传播和政策的关键方面，并据此提出遵循某些方案的建议。尽管如此，由于印度尼西亚的检测水平相对较低且数据收集措施不足，要充分发挥这种分析方法的潜力仍面临重大挑战。
