Aizenman Joshua, Ito Hiro
Dockson Chair in Economics and International Relations University of Southern California Los Angeles California USA.
NBER Cambridge Massachusetts USA.
Rev Int Econ. 2022 Mar 17. doi: 10.1111/roie.12608.
We study emerging markets' 1980s lost growth decade, triggered by the massive reversal of the snowball effect in the US during 1974-1984, finding that higher flow costs of servicing debt overhang explain the dramatic decline in growth rates of exposed emerging markets. We also show how lowering the US cost of servicing its public debt has been associated with higher US, Japan, and Western Europe real output growth rates during the post WWII recovery decades, 1946-1956, and validate that fiscal adjustments of large countries have strong growth and volatility spillovers effects on exposed emerging markets and developing countries.
我们研究了新兴市场在20世纪80年代失去增长的十年，这是由1974年至1984年期间美国雪球效应的大规模逆转引发的，发现偿债负担的更高流动成本解释了受影响新兴市场增长率的急剧下降。我们还展示了二战后复苏的几十年（1946年至1956年），美国降低其公共债务的偿债成本是如何与美国、日本和西欧更高的实际产出增长率相关联的，并验证了大国的财政调整对受影响的新兴市场和发展中国家具有强大的增长和波动溢出效应。
