Afanas'ev M P, Shash N N
Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia.
Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, Moscow, Russia.
Stud Russ Econ Dev. 2021;32(5):476-484. doi: 10.1134/S1075700721050026. Epub 2021 Sep 23.
The article discusses the reasoning associated with the change in the trajectory of the Russian budgetary policy in the current cycle and the substantiation of the forecast values of the main macroeconomic indicators used in the formation of the federal budget. The characteristics and analysis of the dynamics of the volumes of income and expenses are presented. The main theoretical concepts aimed at finding the optimal amount of debt financing for economic growth and the size of public debt are considered. The assessment of measures to balance the Russian budget in the context of the growth of public debt in the context of a decrease in budget revenues. The consequences of an increase in debt financing of the national economy are revealed and the values of indicators of Russia's debt sustainability are calculated.
本文讨论了当前周期俄罗斯预算政策轨迹变化的相关推理，以及联邦预算形成过程中所使用的主要宏观经济指标预测值的依据。文中呈现了收入和支出规模动态的特征与分析。探讨了旨在确定经济增长的最优债务融资量和公共债务规模的主要理论概念。在预算收入减少背景下公共债务增长的情况下，对俄罗斯预算平衡措施进行了评估。揭示了国民经济债务融资增加的后果，并计算了俄罗斯债务可持续性指标的值。
