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利用贝叶斯信息准则识别田间药效试验中斜纹夜蛾对氯氟氰菊酯的实际抗性变化点

Change-point analysis of lambda-cyhalothrin efficacy against soybean aphid (Aphis glycines Matsumura): identifying practical resistance from field efficacy trials.

机构信息

Department of Entomology, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN, 55108.

University of Minnesota Southwest Research and Outreach Center, Lamberton, MN, 56152.

出版信息

Pest Manag Sci. 2022 Aug;78(8):3638-3643. doi: 10.1002/ps.7006. Epub 2022 Jun 15.

DOI:10.1002/ps.7006
PMID:35607882
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9544874/
Abstract

BACKGROUND

Soybean aphid (Aphis glycines Matsumura) remains the most economically important arthropod pest of soybean in the Upper Midwest Region of the USA. Soybean aphid resistance to the pyrethroid insecticides emerged in 2015; however, the reduction in the efficacy of field applications of pyrethroid insecticides has not been quantified. Based on time-series data from insecticide efficacy trials at two locations, a novel approach of continuous two-phase change point-regression models was used to indicate whether a change in percent control had occurred, and to provide an indication of when and to what degree the percent control had changed.

RESULTS

At both locations examined in this study, a significant change point for percent control of λ-cyhalothrin was detected in 2014, thus marking the onset of practical resistance in the soybean aphid. Percent control decreased at a rate of 4.30% and 19.90% per year at these locations. By contrast, percent control for chlorpyrifos remained high over time with no significant change point.

CONCLUSION

This research demonstrates that retrospective time-series analysis of insecticide efficacy data can identify the onset and magnitude of practical resistance in the field. This further validates and compliments the other lines of evidence related to pyrethroid resistance in soybean aphid. © 2022 The Authors. Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.

摘要

背景

大豆蚜虫(Aphis glycines Matsumura)仍然是美国中西部地区大豆最重要的节肢动物害虫。2015 年,大豆蚜虫对拟除虫菊酯杀虫剂产生了抗性;然而,拟除虫菊酯杀虫剂田间应用效果的降低尚未量化。基于两个地点杀虫剂功效试验的时间序列数据,采用了一种新的连续两阶段变化点回归模型方法,以指示是否发生了控制百分比的变化,并提供控制百分比何时以及在何种程度上发生变化的指示。

结果

在本研究检查的两个地点,都检测到了 λ-氯氟氰菊酯控制百分比的显著变化点,这标志着大豆蚜虫实际抗性的开始。这些地点的控制百分比每年分别以 4.30%和 19.90%的速度下降。相比之下,氯菊酯的控制百分比随着时间的推移保持较高水平,没有显著的变化点。

结论

这项研究表明,对杀虫剂功效数据的回顾性时间序列分析可以确定田间实际抗性的开始和程度。这进一步验证和补充了与大豆蚜虫拟除虫菊酯抗性相关的其他证据。©2022 作者。害虫管理科学由约翰威立父子公司代表化学工业协会出版。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/be4c/9544874/08341c088f17/PS-78-3638-g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/be4c/9544874/b5a008bf78dc/PS-78-3638-g004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/be4c/9544874/2bd4e88e45c7/PS-78-3638-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/be4c/9544874/08341c088f17/PS-78-3638-g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/be4c/9544874/b5a008bf78dc/PS-78-3638-g004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/be4c/9544874/2bd4e88e45c7/PS-78-3638-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/be4c/9544874/08341c088f17/PS-78-3638-g003.jpg

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