Instituto de Ingeniería, National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM), Ciudad Universitaria, Coyoacán, 04510, Mexico, DF, Mexico.
Department of Economics, University of Sao Paulo, Av. Prof. Luciano Gualberto, 908, FEA 1, Cidade Universitária, Sao Paulo, SP, Brazil.
Nat Commun. 2022 May 25;13(1):2908. doi: 10.1038/s41467-022-30504-3.
The economy of a country is exposed to disruptions caused by natural and man-made disasters. Here we present a set of probabilistic risk indicators, the Average Annual Loss (AAL) and the Loss Exceedance Curve (LEC), regarding to production, employment, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Gross Regional Product (GRP), export volume, inflation, tariff revenue, among others, due to earthquakes. All indicators are computed using a systematic probabilistic approach, which integrates the seismic risk assessment with spatial computable general equilibrium models, both robust and well-known frameworks used worldwide in their respective fields. Our approach considers the induced damage and frequency of occurrence of a vast collection of events that collectively describe the entire seismic hazard of a country, giving us a better and more complete understanding of the full consequence of earthquakes. We illustrate this approach with an example developed for Chile.
一个国家的经济会受到自然灾害和人为灾害造成的破坏。在这里,我们提出了一系列概率风险指标,包括平均年度损失(AAL)和损失超越曲线(LEC),涉及到由于地震导致的生产、就业、国内生产总值(GDP)、地区生产总值(GRP)、出口量、通货膨胀、关税收入等方面。所有指标都是使用系统概率方法计算的,该方法将地震风险评估与空间可计算一般均衡模型相结合,这两个框架在各自的领域中都是被全球广泛使用的稳健且知名的框架。我们的方法考虑了大量事件的诱发破坏和发生频率,这些事件共同描述了一个国家的全部地震风险,使我们能够更好、更全面地了解地震的全部后果。我们用为智利开发的一个示例来说明这种方法。